Speculation Season – Rolex GMT Master, Swiss Watch Data, & Betting Markets – Episode 71

Rumours about the Rolex GMT Master II Pepsi have reached a boiling point. Authorised dealer websites — controlled by Rolex, not the retailers — have quietly dropped the reference, and WatchPro is reporting that dealers have been told to expect no further deliveries. Asher finds it a dull story; Gabe is more interested in what comes next from Rolex in dress watches, the 1908 collection, and whether the long-dormant Milgauss finally returns. The centrepiece of the episode is the fallout from the annual Morgan Stanley/LuxConsult Swiss Watch Industry report, which drew unusually public pushback from Swatch Group and Tudor this year. Gabe frames Swatch's objections in context: a holding company with depressed stock, underperforming peers, and an activist investor pressing against the Hayek family's control. Their counter-arguments cherry-pick individual figures without offering systematic data — and suing, he notes, gets complicated fast when Swiss civil law has no discovery process. The episode closes on Kalshi's new watch futures prediction market, built in partnership with Bezel. Gabe is sceptical — the market is too thin, insider-trading risk too obvious, and a wrong prediction leaves you with nothing. Both hosts agree it has the feel of early-2020s financial-instrument mania and probably won't survive scrutiny. The episode opens with an announcement for Collective Horology’s Los Angeles Open House watch show (June 6, RSVP required) and closes with a conversation about the podcast’s focus on the business of watches and why that perspective matters to collectors and industry observers. Openwork is a weekly podcast about how the watch industry actually works. An unfiltered look behind the scenes — no press releases, no hype, and no sponsored takes. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology. Available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email [email protected].