State of bitcoin (Q1 2026)

NYDIG's Pete Janney, Greg Cipolaro, Logan Scott, and Ben Lawsky reconvene for their quarterly update and outlook, recapping a turbulent Q1 2026 that saw bitcoin fall 22.5% amid a cascade of headwinds, from the failed Clarity Act markup and quantum computing fears to AI disruption, the Iran conflict, and rising stagflation concerns. The team unpacks how bitcoin has surprisingly outperformed since the onset of geopolitical tensions, behaving as a store of value while precious metals stumbled, and why correlations with U.S. equities near all-time highs tell a more nuanced story. They assess the current state of institutional adoption, including major banks launching custody and ETF products, new capital formation structures like Strategy's STRC and Strive's preferred equity, and the convergence of traditional finance and crypto firms. The conversation turns to the Q2 outlook, where the fate of the Clarity Act looms large. May is shaping up as the make-or-break window before midterm politics close the legislative path, and the team weighs what that means for the market, regulatory clarity, and the next wave of institutional capital.