NYDIG Notes

NYDIG's Greg Cipolaro and Pete Janney unpack Strategy's recent signal that it may sell some of its bitcoin holdings, the first time the company has ever indicated anything other than buying. Greg and Pete walk through why Strategy, which holds nearly 820,000 bitcoin or about 4% of all bitcoin that will ever exist, is choosing to inoculate the market before any actual sales, and how growing dividend obligations on instruments like STRC factor into the move.The conversation then broadens to what Greg calls the trifurcation of digital asset treasury companies: those issuing bitcoin-backed digital credit, those using bitcoin balances to acquire operating businesses, and those running active treasury management strategies. Greg and Pete lay out how the relevant valuation metrics, mNAV, EBITDA, and bitcoin per share, shift depending on which lane a company occupies, and why Strategy is still expected to be a net buyer.

NYDIG's Greg Cipolaro and Pete Janney are back from Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas with takeaways from a week of high-quality meetings, panels, and institutional conversations. Across lending markets, capital structures, payments, and infrastructure, the throughline was clear: institutional building around bitcoin has continued at full pace, with serious capital and serious operators showing up to do the work.Greg and Pete walk through the themes that dominated the week, including the rapid expansion of bitcoin-backed lending on both the institutional and consumer sides, growing momentum behind DAT capital structures like Strategy's STRC and Strive's SATA, and the narrowing spread between DeFi and CeFi borrowing rates in the wake of the Aave fallout. They also dig into Block's expanding payments footprint, with 800,000 merchants now accepting bitcoin, the quantum question that infused nearly every conversation, and the tension between OG bitcoiners and the institutional ownership now reshaping the asset.

NYDIG's Pete Janney and Greg Cipolaro break down a North Korean exploit that drained nearly $300 million from a DeFi project, triggering knock-on effects across the crypto lending ecosystem. The pair size up the digital asset-backed lending market, roughly $70 billion in outstanding loans, with about half originated through DeFi platforms, and walk through how a single exploit on Kelp cascaded into Aave, drained TVL from ~$28 billion to ~$13 billion, and pushed dollar borrowing rates from around 4% to 13-15%. They examine the mechanics of the digital bank run, why borrowers and depositors are now locked in, and the governance and economic risks that institutional participants often abstract away. Greg argues the term "DeFi" is a misnomer, with "open finance" being a more accurate description given how centralized the decision-making actually is. The conversation closes with what this means for Wall Street's tokenization and stablecoin roadmaps, and why a high-touch, traditional approach to digital asset lending matters more than ever.

In this episode, NYDIG's Pete Janney and Greg Cipolaro unpack bitcoin's strong performance since the onset of the Iran conflict. The pair examine drivers of that outperformance and where the incremental buyer is coming from, with a close look at Strategy's STRC perpetual preferred equity instrument. They also cover Goldman Sachs entering the covered call ETF space, the state of implied and realized volatility, and what the current options environment means for yield-seeking clients. Greg adds context from on-chain metrics suggesting the current drawdown is tracking better than prior cycles and a bottoming process may be underway.

NYDIG's Pete Janney, Greg Cipolaro, Logan Scott, and Ben Lawsky reconvene for their quarterly update and outlook, recapping a turbulent Q1 2026 that saw bitcoin fall 22.5% amid a cascade of headwinds, from the failed Clarity Act markup and quantum computing fears to AI disruption, the Iran conflict, and rising stagflation concerns. The team unpacks how bitcoin has surprisingly outperformed since the onset of geopolitical tensions, behaving as a store of value while precious metals stumbled, and why correlations with U.S. equities near all-time highs tell a more nuanced story. They assess the current state of institutional adoption, including major banks launching custody and ETF products, new capital formation structures like Strategy's STRC and Strive's preferred equity, and the convergence of traditional finance and crypto firms. The conversation turns to the Q2 outlook, where the fate of the Clarity Act looms large. May is shaping up as the make-or-break window before midterm politics close the legislative path, and the team weighs what that means for the market, regulatory clarity, and the next wave of institutional capital.

In this episode, NYDIG's Pete Janney and Ben Lawsky unpack the current state of the Clarity Act, the broad market structure bill that would define when digital assets are securities versus commodities and establish a regulatory framework for exchanges, DeFi, and tokenization. They explore how an unresolved stablecoin yield provision from the Genius Act derailed the bill's momentum, the competing interests of the banking lobby, major crypto players, and the White House, and why May is shaping up as a make-or-break window before midterm politics complicate the path forward. The conversation also touches on what legislative delay means for institutional adoption and why some of the largest financial firms are hoping for statutory clarity before finalizing their moves into the crypto space.

In this episode, NYDIG’s Greg Cipolaro and Pete Janney discuss how perpetual preferred stock issuance has become a new driver of bitcoin demand, with instruments like Strategy’s STRC helping digital asset treasury companies raise capital to expand their bitcoin holdings. They break down how these products work, why they have resonated with investors, and the key risks tied to bitcoin price exposure, corporate credit, and dividend sustainability. The conversation also compares the current market drawdown with the 2022 cycle, highlighting the limited fallout from a recent bankruptcy and the signs of a more resilient, better-capitalized crypto industry.

In this episode, NYDIG’s Greg Cipolaro and Pete Janney discuss how geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran conflict have created volatility across global markets, particularly in oil, equities, and interest rates, and how bitcoin has responded differently than in past risk-off environments. They examine bitcoin’s recent price stability near the mid-$60K range and the possibility that the market may be entering an early bottoming phase as trading activity and derivatives metrics begin to recover. The conversation also explores bitcoin’s evolving correlation with technology equities, the continued institutional buildout of crypto infrastructure despite muted token price reactions, and recent critiques of bitcoin from prominent investors, highlighting ongoing debates around its role, adoption trajectory, and long-term positioning in the financial system.

In this episode, NYDIG’s Pete Janney and Greg Cipolaro discuss rising market anxiety tied to artificial intelligence and its potential economic impact. They examine a widely circulated “AI doom” research piece and why concerns about job displacement and weakening demand are resonating with investors. The conversation compares today’s debate with past technological revolutions and explores how rapid rotations across equities and broader risk sentiment are affecting bitcoin, and how uncertainty around AI and portfolio repositioning is shaping the current macro environment.

In this episode, Pete Janney and Greg Cipolaro discuss signs of market stabilization following bitcoin’s sharp drawdown despite broader stresses emerging across the crypto ecosystem. They examine volatility levels, ETF outflows, pressure on digital asset treasury companies, and how institutionalization may be increasing bitcoin’s correlation to traditional risk assets during periods of market stress.The conversation also explores deleveraging across crypto markets, consolidation dynamics following major selloffs, evolving investor positioning, and why quieter market conditions may ultimately help establish a longer-term bottom. Finally, they discuss potential catalysts ahead, including legislative momentum, institutional participation, and renewed interest in upside exposure through options markets.

NYDIG’s Global Head of Research Greg Cipolaro and Senior Trading Specialist Khoa Le examine the recent bitcoin drawdown and assess whether the move reflects crypto-specific stress or broader cross-asset de-risking. In a “whodunit” mystery style exploration, they analyze derivatives conditions, funding and basis markets, and systemic dislocations to find the culprit. The discussion explores volatility spillovers from commodities into bitcoin, the role of multi-strategy and quantitative funds in driving cross-asset correlation shocks, and how portfolio-level risk reduction can pressure BTC despite stable market plumbing. They discuss what true capitulation might look like, key levels to watch, and the evolving risk framework around leveraged corporate holders.

In this episode, Pete Janney and Greg Cipolaro examine bitcoin’s recent drawdown and the broader risk-off shift across digital and traditional markets. They discuss liquidation dynamics, leverage trends, derivatives positioning, and key technical levels that could signal a bottoming process. The conversation also explores altcoin underperformance, volatility conditions, and the role of bitcoin’s historical four-year cycles. Despite near-term uncertainty, they highlight continued institutional engagement, infrastructure buildout, and sustained interest in custody, tokenization, and stablecoins as evidence of crypto’s enduring structural momentum.

In this episode, Pete Janney and Greg Cipolaro discuss why bitcoin has faded from the market spotlight even as volatility surges across commodities, currencies, and traditional macro markets. They examine the powerful rally in gold, silver, copper, energy, and other commodities, the geopolitical and weather-driven forces behind recent price moves, and why bitcoin currently feels mediocre relative to the rest of the market. The conversation explores investor attention, market narratives, and what crypto’s quieter period may signal for broader positioning and sentiment.

In this episode, Ben Lawsky (Head of Regulatory Affairs) dives deep into the evolving U.S. crypto regulatory landscape, including the stalled market structure bill, stablecoin implementation challenges, and shifting agency dynamics. We assess what recent setbacks mean for regulatory clarity, industry momentum, and the path forward amid growing political time pressure.

In this episode, the conversation centers on themes for 2026. Pete Janney, Logan Scott & Greg Cipolaro discuss bitcoin’s maturation as an asset and how its market behavior is evolving as institutional participation deepens, whether bitcoin should still be framed through the lens of speculative cycles or increasingly viewed as a durable, long-term allocation alongside traditional growth and alternative assets, and the relevance of the 4-year cycles. The episode also explores growing adoption among financial advisors and institutions, including policy approvals that enable client allocations to bitcoin-related investments.

In this episode, Pete Janney and Greg Cipolaro discuss how bitcoin is maturing as an asset, highlighting declining volatility as a sign of deeper liquidity and broader participation, and what that means for its evolving risk profile. They examine bitcoin’s growing role in portfolios—often compared with gold—as institutional adoption, advisor uptake, and vehicles like ETFs reshape demand and price behavior amid macro uncertainty. The conversation concludes with a forward-looking view of bitcoin as an increasingly established component of diversified investment strategies, supported by improving infrastructure, regulatory progress, and rising institutional acceptance despite ongoing market uncertainty.

In this episode, Pete Janney and Greg Cipolaro break down one of the most volatile periods in bitcoin market history. Following bitcoin’s surge to an all-time high of $126,000 in October and a rapid 32% correction, the discussion explores the $19–$20 billion leverage washout, market structure breakdowns, stablecoin dislocations, and the broader macro forces that shaped crypto markets in late 2025.‍The conversation also examines bitcoin’s evolving role as “digital gold,” contrasts its performance with gold, and analyzes institutional drivers such as ETFs, global liquidity, and inflation expectations.‍Finally, the episode dives deep into the rise of digital asset treasury companies, NAV premiums and discounts, capital markets dynamics, and what these trends mean for bitcoin’s next phase.