State of the 2028 Primary: Kamala’s Fragile Lead, AOC’s Surge, and the Trump-Vance Dilemma

Brogressive hosts Max Levin and Ben Bartlett welcome Milan Singh of the Yale Youth Poll and Armin Thomas from Split Ticket for a comprehensive breakdown of one of the first major polls of the 2028 presidential primaries (0:00). They dive straight into the Democratic side, discussing Kamala Harris’s fragile frontrunner status, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s surprising strength, and Pete Buttigieg’s path through an increasingly divided field (9:12).The discussion shifts to candidate favorability, unpacking why John Fetterman and Stephen A. Smith have shockingly negative numbers among Democratic voters, and what that signals about party messaging and voter expectations (10:48). On the Republican side, JD Vance emerges as the overwhelming favorite in a Trump-less scenario — but the poll reveals a potentially chaotic dynamic if Trump decides to pursue an illegal third term (1:05:25).Milan also highlights some surprising results from message testing, explaining why framing progressive policies as “human rights” caused support to plummet dramatically (1:53). Armin analyzes the growing disconnect between party elites and everyday voters on immigration, education, taxes, and spending, suggesting Democrats might be fundamentally misreading voters' values heading into 2028 (42:55).Finally, they explore potential paths for outsider candidates on the Democratic side, debating whether figures like Mark Cuban, Josh Shapiro, or even Raphael Warnock could redefine the race (1:17:25). The episode closes with a look at Trump's unpredictable role—will he endorse JD Vance early, or keep the GOP guessing until the convention? (1:18:14).Follow Milan Singh ⁠⁠@milansingh03⁠⁠, Armin Thomas ⁠⁠@Thorongil16⁠⁠, Ben ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@BenBartlettt⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Max ⁠⁠@MaxLevin23⁠⁠, and Brogressive Podcast ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@BrogressivePod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on Twitter/X.Check out the full results of the Yale Youth Poll here.