Still Focused on Earnings Estimates? Think again | Q1 2026 Earnings Season with Nick Raich

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Nick Raich, founder and CEO of The Earnings Scout. Recorded 4/16/2026. Nick shares what he’s learned from years of analyzing corporate earnings data and guiding institutional investors. We dig into the crucial difference between a bearish "Alligator Jaw" divergence and a bullish "Rocket Ship" setup, why the smart money focuses on the delta in earnings estimates rather than simple quarterly beats, how to separate consumer sentiment noise from actual spending data, and why robust earnings growth means the Federal Reserve doesn't need to cut interest rates anytime soon.📈 Topics Covered• Defining the "Alligator Jaw" (a major warning sign) versus a bullish "Rocket Ship" market setup• Why the delta (rate of change) in forward earnings estimates matters far more than simple quarterly beats• How the recent spike in oil prices is—and isn't—impacting corporate earnings guidance• Reconciling weak consumer sentiment surveys with the reality of strong consumer spending• The current state of the AI trade: fears in the software space versus booming semiconductor estimates• How private equity and delayed IPOs have structurally changed the small-cap market• The debate over quarterly earnings reporting and the importance of management transparency• Why the Fed cutting interest rates in the face of above-trend growth would be a massive mistake• The power of combining fundamental earnings data with technical price momentum (1 + 1 = 3)And If you enjoyed our conversation today with Nick, be sure to dive deeper into his insights at: https://www.earningsscout.com/🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehaviorThe content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.