Stop Counting Seats

Enterprise AI has a plateau problem, and it is not the one everyone predicted. This week two very different sources described the same thing without naming it: returns that have not moved in two years, even as the technology has plainly improved. Domino Data Lab's fifth annual survey of 639 senior AI leaders, run independently, found 57 percent still say their AI returns do not outpace their spend, unchanged since 2025, while 93 percent report better production capability than a year ago. Capability up, returns flat. That is not a technology problem. It is a measurement problem. Meanwhile OpenAI's chief financial officer, Sarah Friar, published a scorecard proposing a new unit, "useful intelligence per dollar," and in doing so named the trap: for years software success was measured through adoption, seats and active users and renewals, and AI breaks that proxy completely. A thousand lit seats can produce nothing you would put in front of a board. Stephen Forte on why the unit you count AI in is the wrong unit, the four questions to put to your largest AI investment today, why productivity felt is not revenue banked, and why the number on your AI dashboard you trust the most is probably the one measuring the least.