Supplement Industry "Black Swan Event" | China & Taiwan Conflict | Supply Chain Crisis

What if I told you there’s a 23.75 percent chance the supplement industry will be unrecognizably annihilated in the next year? While I don’t want this to be a “sky is falling” moment that creates panic and mass hysteria, we do need to walk through a very scary…very plausible “black swan event” that would completely disrupt the supplement industry as we know it today. I’ve been modeling out probabilities of certain external threats to the functional ingredient supply chain for some CPG clients, of which one is growing in concern…the geopolitical risks that are building from the growing tensions between China and Taiwan. A recent poll of more than 350 international relations experts estimated that there’s a 23.75 percent chance of a Chinese attack against Taiwan within the next year. You might think that probability is still quite low, but we’ve already seen the Chinese Communist Party increase mobilization of both the People’s Liberation Army air force and navy towards Taiwan. Similarly, the U.S. Congress greenlit a $3 billion Pentagon budget to provide military aid to Taiwan and the President just authorized $500 million worth of weapons aid to Taiwan using the same emergency authority that has been used more than 35 times for Ukraine. Which should be making us ask ourselves: Why is China making these colossal investments and why is America ramping up support? Prudence dictates that we must at least consider the worst.Now…this doesn’t guarantee a China versus United States war...and focusing on those extremes miss the bigger point that any attack on Taiwan by China would most certainly mean governmental sanctions and trillions in world trade deterioration. And we are talking many multiples of economic impact to what has happened because of the Russia Ukraine conflict. If you weren’t aware, outside of something like protein powders, the vast majority of functional ingredients used within the American supplement industry are sourced from the Chinese manufacturing sector. With the American supplement industry being “all in” on China for supply, U.S. and China relations are breaking down, and saving the supplement industry will most likely not be a matter of national security for America. That means things can get scary fast. So, what's next? I'll explore that and more...but it's important to remember that even if your supplement brand feels great about your supplier relationships now…don’t get caught sleeping at the wheel. FOLLOW ME ON MY SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS LINKEDIN - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuaschallmba⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TWITTER - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.twitter.com/joshua_schall⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ INSTAGRAM - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/joshua_schall⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FACEBOOK - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/jschallconsulting