Supply Chain Risk in Asia: The Nature Risk Nobody Prices

Most businesses believe they have outsourced their nature risk. They have not.In this episode we look at why so much climate and nature risk sits in supply chains rather than on the balance sheet, and what that means for any organisation buying from, selling into or manufacturing in Asia.I am joined by Fran van Dijk, CEO and founder of One Stone Advisors, who has just shared a discussion paper on nature and climate risk with the accountancy profession, and Eleanor Whittle, founder of Alopias Earth, who spent a decade in UK government on international biodiversity policy including two years as a diplomat in Beijing, and now advises companies on climate and nature strategy from Taiwan. Together they write the Real World Briefing series. Charlie Luxton and I take the conversation from accounting rules to the water systems that keep global trade moving.The numbers land hard. Drought cut daily Panama Canal crossings by 36%. Low water on the Rhine pushed shipping from around 20 euros a tonne to 150. Around 41% of Asian data centres sit in areas of extremely high water stress, with another 22% in high stress zones. The Asian Development Bank puts roughly 75% of the region's GDP in sectors moderately or heavily dependent on nature, well above the global average.What comes out of it is practical. Separate your risks from your dependencies, because you can diversify a risk and you cannot diversify a dependency. Investigate your supply chain to tier four, not tier one. Build a live risk register. Ask whether you have the regional expertise and local partnerships to turn a disclosure into a credible strategy. And stop filing this under sustainability, because it belongs in business strategy.ABOUT THE GUESTSFran van Dijk, One Stone AdvisorsFran advises boards and senior leadership teams on nature, biodiversity and integrated climate and nature strategy through One Stone Advisors. She is a B Corp founder and a Public Interest Member of the Council of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland. Fran is also Chief Impact Officer at Subsee, an AI and ocean technology company.Fran recently wrote a paper highlighting the sustainability challenges to conventional accounting, such as its failure to record the erosion of the critical shared assets a company doesn't own, and its reliance on historical data to predict non-linear future risks. Giving examples from published data and major corporate losses at firms like PG&E and Toyota, Fran explains why the profession needs better forward-looking, climate- and nature-related risk models. She draws on the UK Government's National Security Assessment, the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries' Parasol Lost report, and documented corporate information.Fran and Will have known each other since Will moved to Edinburgh. She sat on Green Element's advisory board. She brings the ‘what is actually happening’ lens, and the financial translation: unpriced insurance risk, tail risk, going concern, and the questions a CFO cannot answer from a standard risk register.Eleanor Whittle, Alopias EarthEleanor founded Alopias Earth and advises private-sector organisations on climate and nature-related risk and strategy. She spent around ten years in the UK government, including leading major international climate finance programmes and two years as a diplomat in Beijing, where she led UK-China engagement on climate and nature. Eleanor then went on to be Programme Director at global energy think tank Ember. She is based in Taiwan, giving her a working perspective on a region that many European businesses primarily experience through their supply chains and operations. She is also Chief Strategy Officer at Subsee, an AI and ocean technology company. A keen diver and freediver, her connection to the ocean is personal as well as professional.Eleanor co-authors the Real World Briefing series with Fran and wrote the Asia Pacific briefing this episode draws on. She brings the regional and regulatory picture: how nature risk shows up through water, supply chains and infrastructure; why sustainability regulation and disclosure are accelerating across Asian markets; and what this means for European companies buying from, selling into or operating in the region.Eleanor is also an Honorary Fellow of the University of East Anglia.COMPANY SNAPSHOTSOne Stone AdvisorsA specialist advisory practice working with boards and leadership teams on nature, biodiversity and integrated climate and nature strategy. Focus areas include nature-related risk in value chains, board governance and capability, and the financial framing of nature risk. Fran van Dijk is a founder and a B Corp advocate.Alopias EarthA strategic advisory business helping companies understand and respond to climate and nature-related risk, and translate it into strategy and decision-making. Founded by Eleanor Whittle, Alopias Earth brings international policy and regional insight to questions spanning nature-related risk, value chains, regulation and business resilience.The Real World Briefing SeriesA monthly board-level briefing series co-authored by Fran and Eleanor, making the case that nature and biodiversity are business-critical. Four briefings inform this episode:Briefing 1: Nature is Now Business-Critical. Nature moves from voluntary and reputational to material and decision-relevant. TNFD as entry point rather than destination.Briefing 2: Financing Green to Greening Finance. How the financial sector is bringing nature into the mainstream, and why diversification is not enough.Briefing 3: Asia Pacific, the Region That Changes the Equation. Nature risk as geographic and systemic rather than sector-specific.Briefing 4: Europe, a Climate Leader Losing Its Way. The fastest-warming continent, the Omnibus rollback, and cascading food system risk.THE ST ETHELBURGA’S ROUNDTABLEThis summary outlines the findings from the St Ethelburga’s Roundtable, held on June 23, 2026, which addressed the gap between climate and nature insight and effective action.Chapters 01:20 Meet Fran van Dijk and Eleanor Whittle 02:23 What climate and nature risk actually means for a business 06:46 What this year's fires and heatwaves have already cost 09:29 Discounting: how accounting makes long-term damage disappear 11:13 Insurers quietly walking away from high-risk assets 15:47 The Panama Canal and the limits of abstract risk 26:34 Asia: data centres, semiconductors and water stress 31:09 Why you cannot outsource risk to a supplier 34:14 Nickel, Indonesia and the energy transition colliding with nature loss 43:12 The gap between net zero claims and verified action 52:18 Putting nature into governance and onto the board 55:27 The questions your board should be asking nowIf you want help turning this into a costed adaptation and resilience plan, that is what we do at 51toCarbonZero: https://www.51tocarbonzero.comSubscribe for more conversations that make sustainability a business decision rather than a reporting exercise.#NatureRisk #SupplyChainRisk #ClimateRisk #TNFD #SustainabilityMentioned in this episode:UPCOMING WEBINAR: The Scope 3 Blind Spot: What Your Supplier Data Isn't Telling YouScope 3 emissions are often the biggest contributor to an organisation’s carbon footprint, yet many businesses are making decisions based on incomplete, outdated or estimated supplier data. In this webinar, we’ll explore the biggest blind spots in supplier emissions data, why they matter for reporting and decarbonisation, and how leading organisations are moving beyond spreadsheets and assumptions to build a more accurate, scalable approach to Scope 3. LIVE ATTENDANCE BONUS: complimentary gap audit of your top 10 suppliers. Wednesday 16 September | 1pm BST https://www.51tocarbonzero.com/webinar-supply-chain/Supply Chain WebinarKeep informed on Sustainability NewsI'm Will Richardson, Head of Ecosystems at 51toCarbonZero and a sustainability advisor with 25 years in the field. I founded Green Element in 2004 and spent two decades building it into one of Europe's most respected sustainability consultancies before it merged with 51toCarbonZero in November 2025. Climate action is both an obligation and an opportunity, and that's the thread running through everything I write here. I co-created Compare Your Footprint, carbon accounting software recognised as a key player in the Global Carbon Accounting Software Market, and I'm a Fellow of IEMA and a Chartered Environmentalist. Each week, I break down what's actually happening in sustainability: the data,...