Supply, Demand & Pricing | Ceasefire Announced, What's Next?

Dane Gregoris and Al Salazar return to unpack the latest twist in the Hormuz Energy Crisis: a ceasefire announcement that the market celebrated prematurely. While equity markets rallied, oil prices told a different story, and Dane and Al dig into why. The conversation looks past the headlines to examine what's happening at the physical level, where flow disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz remain largely unresolved, ships are moving under Iranian-imposed toll conditions, and a strike on a major Gulf facility the morning of recording suggests the situation is still evolving. The broader discussion weighs whether financial markets are correctly looking past the crisis, or simply waiting for North American supply tightness to bring the picture into focus. Dane and Al walk through bull and bear scenarios, the structural constraints facing OPEC spare capacity, and why EIR is holding its counter-consensus price forecast of $95/bbl Brent for the rest of 2026 and $100/bbl for 2027, even after a significant single-day selloff.