Supporting Iran’s minorities risks playing with fire

Iran may have played into Israel and the United States’ hands by firing drones and missiles at Azerbaijan and Turkey. Beyond risking sucking Turkey and Azerbaijan into the Iran war, the attacks could boost efforts to spark ethnic uprisings in Iran, even though US President Donald Trump, in an apparent 180-degree turn-around, this weekend threw cold water on initial Israeli and US plans to encourage ethnic insurgencies. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Mr. Trump said he had “ruled out” encouraging Kurdish groups from entering the fight with the Iranian government. “They’re willing to go in, but we really—I’ve told them I don’t want them to go in. The war is complicated enough without having, getting the Kurds involved,” Mr. Trump said. It was unclear if Mr. Trump’s about face would force Israel, to fall into line. Israel has maintained long-standing relations with Iranian Kurdish and other armed ethnic groups in the Islamic Republic. The Iranian attack came as US and Israeli warplanes targeted military, security, and intelligence bases in a swath of land that stretches from the Azerbaijan-Iran border to Kurdish-populated areas near Iraq. Twenty per cent of all bombings have focussed on Kurdish and Azeri areas of Iran. Mr. Trump’s turn-around appeared to be at odds with the pattern of Israeli and US bombings, which potentially create an environment conducive to ethnic insurgencies, starting with Kurdish and Azeri-populated areas. The bombing campaign “suggests the (Israeli and US) intent is to facilitate Iranian government loss of control in restive regions of Iran,” insisted Robert S. Ford, a former US ambassador to Algeria and Syria.