EPISODE · Feb 20, 2026 · 21 MIN
Supreme Court special: What the Trump tariffs ruling means for macro and markets
from The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics · host Capital Economics
The Supreme Court has finally ruled on Donald Trump's tariffs with an opinion that the president has no right to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. So what happens now?Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss the implications of this legal ruling for the US economy, for Federal Reserve policy and for financial markets. In their conversation with David Wilder, Stephen and Jonas address key issues, including:How the White House could rebuild its tariff regime – and rebuild it quicklyWhat happens when billions of dollars in tariff refunds flow back into US company accounts Why signs of resurgent inflationary pressures are narrowing the room for Fed rate cutsHow the bond market is responding to the Supreme Court newsWhy the stock market rally has stalled, and whether this news could get it going again.Related readingIEEPA ruling unlikely to pull PCE inflation back to 2%https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economics-weekly/ieepa-ruling-unlikely-pull-pce-inflation-back-2Stock market rotation is a warning of trouble aheadhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/stock-market-rotation-warning-trouble-aheadSC rules that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegalhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-rapid-response/sc-rules-trumps-ieepa-tariffs-are-illegal
What this episode covers
The Supreme Court has finally ruled on Donald Trump's tariffs with an opinion that the president has no right to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. So what happens now?Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss the implications of this legal ruling for the US economy, for Federal Reserve policy and for financial markets. In their conversation with David Wilder, Stephen and Jonas address key issues, including:How the White House could rebuild its tariff regime – and rebuild it quicklyWhat happens when billions of dollars in tariff refunds flow back into US company accounts Why signs of resurgent inflationary pressures are narrowing the room for Fed rate cutsHow the bond market is responding to the Supreme Court newsWhy the stock market rally has stalled, and whether this news could get it going again.Related readingIEEPA ruling unlikely to pull PCE inflation back to 2%https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economics-weekly/ieepa-ruling-unlikely-pull-pce-inflation-back-2Stock market rotation is a warning of trouble aheadhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/stock-market-rotation-warning-trouble-aheadSC rules that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegalhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-rapid-response/sc-rules-trumps-ieepa-tariffs-are-illegal
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Supreme Court special: What the Trump tariffs ruling means for macro and markets
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