Surprise Strength: What upside GDP and Home Sales Mean for MBS

This week’s Convexity Pulse unpacks stronger-than-expected GDP data that may slow the pace of Fed cuts, alongside shifting fund flows that left 15-year MBS rebounding while Ginnies lagged. Kirill breaks down conforming loan limit projections, the pitfalls of relying too heavily on refi indices as a direct translation to prepay speeds, and the surprising strength in new home sales. He also explores how seniors carrying mortgages into retirement create unexpected prepay risk in discount pools.