EPISODE · Sep 29, 2025 · 16 MIN
Surprise Strength: What upside GDP and Home Sales Mean for MBS
from Baird Fixed Income Insights: Convexity Pulse · host Kirill Krylov
This week’s Convexity Pulse unpacks stronger-than-expected GDP data that may slow the pace of Fed cuts, alongside shifting fund flows that left 15-year MBS rebounding while Ginnies lagged. Kirill breaks down conforming loan limit projections, the pitfalls of relying too heavily on refi indices as a direct translation to prepay speeds, and the surprising strength in new home sales. He also explores how seniors carrying mortgages into retirement create unexpected prepay risk in discount pools.
What this episode covers
This week’s Convexity Pulse unpacks stronger-than-expected GDP data that may slow the pace of Fed cuts, alongside shifting fund flows that left 15-year MBS rebounding while Ginnies lagged. Kirill breaks down conforming loan limit projections, the pitfalls of relying too heavily on refi indices as a direct translation to prepay speeds, and the surprising strength in new home sales. He also explores how seniors carrying mortgages into retirement create unexpected prepay risk in discount pools.
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Surprise Strength: What upside GDP and Home Sales Mean for MBS
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