Sustaining Decision Performance

On a large fire, the people directing one to two million dollars per operational period — and carrying direct safety responsibility — are certified once and never evaluated again. No continuing education requirement. No recurring evaluation. No corrective pathway. This episode states the gap precisely, then compares: structural fire, EMS, and law enforcement all require continued training; aviation, nuclear power, and military command pair it with recurring evaluation of the individual. Wildland fire is the outlier, and the gap is a product of historical structure, not deliberate design. A deliberately measured analysis with a deliberately modest recommendation: charter the effort to characterize the problem. Sets up the two-part premortem that follows.Adapted from the Cogplexiti discussion paper. Full paper and regulatory sources: cogplexiti.com