Tara questions Trump's Iran strategy and Strait of Hormuz agreement.

What this episode covers

00:00 Iran violated the MOU. That's how the story goes. It was reported, by the way, by both sides. They violated the MOU, memorandum of understanding that JD Vance negotiated, Lee. So Trump retaliated over the weekend. Well, what did they violate, Well, they said that the straight would be open. We agree. No, we didn't. No, we didn't. 00:25 If you read, this is why I said we're gonna have trouble with this MOU. If you read the wording of the MOU, and it's very cleverly written by whoever wrote it, to give Iran uh literally a whole shipping lane to drive through if they wanna close the straight down. What Iran agreed to in this is to conduct dialogue along with the salt native Oman, I'm looking at it right now. 00:53 to define the future administration, maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz and discussions with other Persian Gulf uh states in line with applicable international law. Wait, what? They only agreed to conduct dialogue. 01:08 in line with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states. They did not agree to respect sovereign rights of the states. And this keeps getting repeated, it's driving me nuts. Iran agreed, they agreed, they agreed to open the strait. No, they didn't. That's not in here. They did not. What did Iran actually agree to? That Iran will quote, make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of 01:37 commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. 01:47 The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start and considering the need for removing technical military obstacles. So, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be uh instated within 30 days. So what did they agree to? 02:03 that they will make arrangements using their best efforts. What does that mean? Well, they're doing it though. They're actually, they're sitting there, they are negotiating, they've already put together an authority that will collect these tolls or fees, whatever you wanna call them at the end of day 60. And they are, they are using their best efforts to put that together. There is nothing in here that says Iran agrees 02:32 to keep the straight open. 02:36 Not here. 02:40 So as the Wall Street Journal was asking this morning, and it's a legitimate question, why on earth, if you're gonna let them sell oil for the first time in decades with no first or secondary sanctions on them, why wouldn't you freeze the assets and control where they go? Why are you just letting them have them? So they can do what? Shut down the straight if they want. 03:05 And so if you read the very vague wording here, uh literally, it says they're going to make their best efforts to make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge. At best, that's pretty vague. Yeah. In other words, they're talking about the negotiations, which are ongoing with Oman and the other Gulf states. And you talk about the best efforts of the IRGC? m 03:37 Yeah. would not want to have, uh, I would not claim authorship of that document. I'm sorry. No, it's really bad. And the more you read it, the more you get into the literal like, okay, wow, no, they definitely didn't agree not to shut down the straight. They didn't agree to keep it open. That that's just not in there. 03:56 So, you know, does it say they can go bombing commercial ships? No. 04:02 But it doesn't say they can't either. It simply says they've got to begin making arrangements for how they're going to control the Strait at the end of 60 days when they will be able to charge fees. And they were really um open about it this weekend. Hey, look, this is uh Ibrahim Azizi, his tweet. The reality in the Persian Gulf has changed. The Strait of Hormuz is governed by Iran, so respect the rules. Use secure routes. 04:31 Do not mistake control for escalation. If you do not learn the rules, the Iranian armed forces will teach them to you. Hey l ...

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