Tariffs, rates… and an Argentina rescue

Tariffs are back in the headlines after Donald Trump’s latest announcements – but how much of a threat do these new levies really pose? Could they fuel inflation pressures, and is Trump’s trade policy really bringing manufacturing jobs back?Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to assess Trump’s tariff threats, explain why Stephen Miran’s call for US rates to be halved doesn’t add up, and examine what’s driving the divergence between inflation in the US and Europe/UK.Also on the show, Latin America Economist Kimberley Sperrfechter looks at an extraordinary week in Argentina, where markets have steadied after Washington intervened. What drove the Trump administration to act so forcefully, and will the support work?Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Data: Tariff Impact ModelRead: US Tariff AnnouncementRead: Japanese manufacturers starting to shift production to USRead: Euro-zone inflation risks now to the downsideDrop-In: From bonds to equities – The great pensions switch and its risksDrop-In: Where is r* heading? Catching up on equilibrium real ratesDrop-In: UK Outlook – More tax rises to add to economy’s woes​​Read: Mapping China’s presence in Latin America​