Tech Spending Has a Cash Problem | Jim Paulsen on the Two Signals That Could Trigger a Correction

Jim Paulsen returns to Excess Returns to discuss why he is increasingly concerned about a meaningful stock market pullback, even though he does not expect a bear market. We cover the extreme divide between AI-driven “new era” stocks and the rest of the market, what oil and inflation could mean for the Fed, why tech earnings and market leadership have become so concentrated, and what investors should watch as the economy potentially shifts from inflation fears to growth fears. Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts Jim Paulsen on X https://x.com/jimwpaulsen Paulsen Perspectives https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/ Topics Covered Why Jim thinks the economy could weaken into the summer and fall The risk of a sharp stock market pullback without a full bear market How inflation, oil prices and geopolitical conflict are affecting the market Why the Fed may face a difficult decision under Kevin Warsh The extreme divide between new era tech stocks and old era stocks Why AI and innovation need to benefit the broader economy to be sustainable How tech earnings have become concentrated in only two S&P 500 sectors Why small-cap tech and unprofitable tech leadership may be a warning sign What past oil price peaks suggest about stock market corrections Why investor focus may shift from inflation risk to growth risk How this bull market has been driven by a series of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AI Timestamps 00:00 Why AI has to benefit more than the tech sector 05:18 Inflation, oil prices and the impact of geopolitical conflict 10:54 New era stocks versus old era stocks 15:43 Corporate cash, AI spending and pressure on tech investment 20:17 Policy tightening and why economic momentum may slow 25:31 Why AI must spread beyond the companies building it 31:42 Why this tech boom is different from the 1990s 36:51 Why market breadth keeps fading back into large-cap growth 42:06 Small-cap tech and unprofitable tech start leading 46:15 Why the damage from oil shocks often comes after oil peaks 50:15 How the market could shift from inflation fear to growth fear 54:40 The bull market of booms in Mag 7, Bitcoin, gold, oil and AI 59:46 Jim’s main takeaway for investors now Follow the Excess Returns podcasts: https://excessreturnspod.com/ Contact us: [email protected]/ No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.