Tel Aviv Under Fire: A Night of Missiles, a Morning of Impact, and a Hard Look at Where This War Is Headed- With Ehud Haik

In this episode of Tel Aviv Diary, I begin with a grim update from Tel Aviv after a night that was anything but quiet. Repeated missile warnings sent us to the shelters at 1:00 a.m., again at 4:30, and then once more at 7:20 in the morning, when a missile with multiple warheads struck in Tel Aviv, landing uncomfortably close to home. It was a stark reminder that for those of us living here, this war is not an abstraction but a constant, physical presence.The main conversation, recorded the night before, features former intelligence officer and security consultant Ehud Haik. Together we try to make sense of a war whose opening phase has brought undeniable military successes, but whose strategic endgame remains deeply uncertain. Ehud argues that President Trump’s push toward negotiations may be the only realistic path forward if the alternative is a prolonged air war with no political resolution. We discuss whether regimes can truly be toppled from the air, what history teaches from Japan to Serbia, and why Iran’s size, resilience, and internal dynamics make this a far more complicated conflict than many imagined at the outset.We also turn to the broader failures of strategy closer to home: Israel’s reliance on force without diplomacy, the repeated lessons of Lebanon and Gaza, and the danger of tactical victories turning into long-term political defeats. Along the way, we examine the role of the United States, the possibility of a regional nuclear chain reaction, and the troubling sense that while missiles may be intercepted, no one yet seems able to articulate a coherent political destination. It is a sobering, candid conversation recorded in real time, in the middle of a war whose outcome remains painfully unresolved. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit marcschulman.substack.com/subscribe