Terrorism Forecast 2025

In this episode of Secure Line, hosts Leah West and Jessica Davis are joined by Dr. Colin P. Clarke, a senior research fellow at the Soufan Center and director of research at the Soufan Group, to discuss the evolving global terrorism landscape. Building on the previous episode's focus on Canada, this conversation broadens the scope to examine the most pressing terrorism threats worldwide.Dr. Clarke delves into his recent analysis, Trends in Terrorism: What’s on the Horizon in 2025?, and reflects on how rapidly the threat landscape has shifted even since its publication in January. He discusses key developments, including the potential implications of the U.S. military restructuring AFRICOM, the growing influence of terrorist groups in Africa, and the concerning shifts in U.S. policy toward counterterrorism operations. The discussion highlights the resurgence of Al-Shabaab and Islamic State-affiliated groups, particularly in Somalia, where financial networks are sustaining jihadist operations across multiple regions.The conversation also examines the significant challenges posed by Hezbollah and Hamas following a year of heavy losses, Israel’s counterinsurgency campaign in Gaza, and how Hamas’ financial networks—largely beyond Israel’s reach—remain intact in countries like Turkey and Sudan. Colin and Jessica emphasize that while kinetic strikes have weakened Hamas militarily, financial counterterrorism efforts have not kept pace, allowing the group to sustain itself. They discuss how missteps by Israel and Western governments have, paradoxically, reinforced support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, both in the Middle East and in Western nations.Shifting focus to Syria, the discussion explores the collapse of the Assad regime and the emerging leadership of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Dr. Clarke provides insight into the risks associated with this transition, the strategic withdrawal of U.S. forces, and the ongoing threat posed by Islamic State fighters held in prison camps. The conversation underscores the persistent danger of these camps becoming a breeding ground for future jihadist movements if left unchecked.The episode then turns to the controversial issue of designating drug cartels as terrorist organizations, particularly in Canada and the United States. Dr. Clarke critiques this approach, arguing that it blurs the distinction between terrorism and organized crime, potentially diluting counterterrorism efforts and introducing unintended consequences, such as expanding CSIS’s mandate into organized crime. Jessica Davis underscores the legal and practical limitations of these designations, cautioning against their long-term implications for law enforcement and intelligence agencies.The discussion closes with an assessment of the growing threats from right-wing extremism, the resurgence of neo-Nazi and militia movements, and the potential for left-wing extremist violence in response to political developments. Dr. Clarke warns of the dangers posed by an increasingly fragmented and unpredictable extremism landscape, including groups that blend ideologies in unpredictable ways. Looking ahead, he identifies a weakened Iran as a particularly volatile factor, raising concerns about potential Iranian-backed terrorist attacks in response to its diminishing regional influence.As always, the episode concludes on a sobering note, emphasizing the complexity of modern terrorism threats and the importance of vigilance, intelligence cooperation, and effective counterterrorism strategies. Clarke, West, and Davis leave listeners with much to consider as they navigate an increasingly uncertain security environment.