Texas vs Texas State Game Preview / Texas Longhorns LIVE 117

Texas Longhorns LIVE 117 — Texas vs. Texas State Game Preview Hosts: Matthew Miller & Thomas “Tommy” Bresee | TexasVOCFB | FanDuel sponsored Game: Texas vs. Texas State at DKR. Texas -29.5. Intro & Line (0:00–0:43) Welcome, likes/subs, FanDuel. Game week vs. Texas State. Tommy calls 29.5 roughly fair: Texas State defense was poor last year and should not keep up. Texas State Snapshot (0:43–1:22) 7-6 last year, won final four, 3-5 Sun Belt. 36.5 PPG with QB Brad Jackson and HC G.J. Kinney. 29 PPG allowed — bottom-third defense. 73rd in returning production: Jackson, Bo Spears (offense), safety Ryan Nolan (leading tackler). Texas Offense vs. Texas State Defense (1:22–8:50) What they need to see Clean football: no turnovers, few penalties, stay ahead of the chains. Offensive line push and short-yardage conversion (3rd/4th-and-1). Trevor Goosby and Lawrence Seymour practiced Monday. If Goosby is 50/50, sit him; if 90/10, play him so the line gets full-game reps after camp injuries. Run game takes it off Arch Manning’s shoulders. Target ~6 YPC vs. a bottom-third unit. Explosives are the identity, but this game should not require them. Arch should not need more than 20–25 attempts. Down-to-down consistency. Under 35 points is a problem; 45–50+ feels right. Arch 65% completion, cleaner mechanics/accuracy/on-time throws (last year’s issues were often mechanical, not just talent). Clean hands from Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman (one drop between them is fine; consistent drops/bobbles are not). Emmitt Mosley healthy. Explosive runs from Hollywood Smothers or Relique Brown — last year it took 6–7 games for a 20+ yard run. Need 2–3 of those or one 40+. O-line assignment soundness; no free rushers at Arch. Pre-snap penalties: one is tolerable, more is a red flag heading into Ohio State. Don’t need to see too much of Coleman/Arch/the backs late — that would mean the game is tighter than it should be. Watch Seymour–Dylan Sikorski split. Nick Townsend: 4-catch, 60-yard, TD-type game would unlock the middle of the field and take attention off Coleman/Wingo. Both hosts think he can surpass Jatavian Sanders/Gunnar Helm with reps and confidence. Texas Defense (8:50–14:08) What they need to see Big-time plays from Raheem Biles. How rotations take shape at LB, safety, corner, and edge. First freshman on the field and in what situations (pass-rush only vs. all three downs). Justin Cryer as communicator. Aggressive/attacking but smart — balance is hard. Corner: Kobe Black vs. Cade Phillips (Grayson Littleton and Bo Masco lock two of three spots). Safety opposite Jelani McDonald: Jonah Williams, Derek Williams, possibly Black if Phillips takes the corner. Young LBs flash: Rocky Cummings, Kosi Akpala, or Tyler Atkinson. Will Muschamp approach vs. Texas State: more blitz/man expected. Get home; don’t get burnt. 4–6 sacks in play for the DL. Richard Wesley “pop” — Colin Simmons called him more talented. Should be in on multiple sacks. Line up four DL and beat their five; sprinkle in LB/nickel blitzes. Some early miscommunication is expected and should be cleaned up. Game Prediction (14:08–15:47) Tommy: 48–13 Texas (covers). Comfortable, not perfectly clean; enough sloppy clips for OU/A&M fans. Offense does what it wants in the first half, then depth. Miller: 41–13 (Texas State covers). Two-and-a-half to three quarters of starters. Shared view: easy win unless Texas State’s two WRs and Brad Jackson get an early groove. Viewer Questions (15:47–17:21) Cole Hudson: expected to play, not start (Seymour starts if healthy; Sikorski also listed). Sark will play any OL he thinks can contribute — Jackson Christian, Jordan Coleman, Jaden Chapman, others. Rice-game comparison: fewer bodies this year (~90 vs. 110), so not as many unique players, but more meaningful snaps for young pieces Sark trusts long-term. Richard Wesley could see 20+ snaps (used to be 5–15). Anyone who needs to play vs. Ohio State should get 15–20 snaps. 2026 Record & Playoff Predictions (17:21–33:47) Both take Texas State and UTSA as wins. Ohio State (Texas -1.5): Tommy takes Ohio State — needs to see Sark out-scheme Matt Patricia (what beat them last year). Miller takes Texas: Ohio State has more defensive replacements; last year’s scheme advantage faded as the year went on. Tennessee (road): Both take Texas, close (within 10). Faison Brandon’s first SEC start vs. Muschamp; high variance. Red River: Both take Texas. Sark has consistently gotten the better of Brent Venables; last year’s win was efficient. Florida: Both take Texas, potentially comfortably after last year’s embarrassment. Buster Faulkner has answers for Kirby Smart-style defenses (similar to Muschamp). Ole Miss: Both take Texas. Don’t trust Pete Golding without Charlie Weiss Jr. and last year’s momentum. Mississippi State: Both take Texas. Kamario Taylor is elite-level talent but they won’t pick the upset yet. Missouri: Both take Texas. Vegas win total ~6–6.5; Ahmad Hardy timeline (late September rumors) and nine-game SEC slate point to regression. LSU (Death Valley night): Both take LSU. Miller’s first (and only) regular-season loss → 11-1. Tommy 10-2. Lane Kiffin + environment. Arkansas: Both take Texas. Texas A&M: Both take Texas (same logic as Oklahoma: defensive HC + QB arm questions vs. Texas). Regular season: Miller 11-1, Tommy 10-2. SEC title: Both have Texas in and losing to Georgia. CFP path Tommy: Texas beats Miami and Oregon, loses national title to Notre Dame. Miller: Texas beats USC/Miami-type teams, beats Oregon in the title game. First time he has picked Texas to win the national championship on the channel — talent gap over Notre Dame/Oregon is small but real. What Can Go Right (33:47–41:25) Sark lets personnel dictate scheme and adapts in-game (last year he called what he wanted instead of what the OL could execute until the Mississippi State comeback). Muschamp’s defense plays smart, not just fast — doesn’t overcommit. Coleman + Wingo cut drops and complement each other like Xavier Worthy/AD Mitchell. Coleman develops into a more complete route-runner (ceiling: George Pickens/A.J. Green traits). Arch plays “boring”: accurate and efficient. Big plays and legs will come; timing and completion percentage make the offense nearly unstoppable. Relique Brown and Hollywood Smothers hit home-run runs (sputter-then-explode room). That opens play-action and takes pressure off Arch. Derek Cooper as bruiser later. Elite safety play opposite McDonald so Muschamp can stay aggressive. What Can Go Wrong (41:25–45:00) Linebacker depth: injury to Biles or Cryer (Ty Anthony Smith gone). Cryer is also a key communicator. Top-priority health names: Biles, Cryer, Arch, Coleman. Locker-room connectivity/egos with a heavy portal roster and many new faces. First loss will bring the “turmoil” questions. Self-inflicted wounds: pre-snap penalties, turnovers, failing to get 1–2 yards in key spots, shotgun/self-destruct plays (Arizona State memory). First TD & Closing Philosophy (45:00–end) First Texas TD guesses: Miller — Emmitt Mosley; Tommy — Hollywood Smothers (or Cam Coleman as fan-service jump ball). Philosophy: start fast every game. Talent on both sides of the ball should make opponents nervous early. Tommy’s extra notes: Do you trust Sark after the portal/staff swings? He does — ride him. Enjoy the process and the fun players instead of only measuring the season by a title. New Thursday 6:30 p.m. ET best-bets/call-in show added; Tuesday 7 p.m. ET remains. Hook ’em. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.