The $1 Trillion AI Bubble: Nvidia, OpenAI, and the Feedback Loop

In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman dive into the question on everyone’s mind: are we in an AI bubble? What starts as a lighthearted riff on the U.S. Postal Service launching a podcast quickly spirals into a sharp, funny breakdown of today’s AI hype cycle — from Nvidia, OpenAI, and AMD trading money and GPUs in a trillion-dollar feedback loop, to startups burning cash chasing “AI-powered” everything. The trio share real examples of when AI helps and when it backfires (including one newsletter that totally tanked), debate whether companies are over-optimizing for automation, and laugh through the absurdity of the hype while grounding it in practical insights on product, finance, and growth.Timestamps:00:00 Preview and Intro00:14 Are We in an AI Bubble?00:44 The AI Money Loop: Nvidia, OpenAI, AMD01:00 Perplexity, We Caught You02:18 The Postal Service Launches a Podcast04:24 How the Team Uses AI (and When It Fails)06:07 CJ’s DIY Dunning Disaster08:38 What AI Is Good At — and Where It Breaks10:49 Perplexity Tries to Gaslight Kyle13:27 AI vs. AI: Hacking Resume Screeners16:09 How Recruiters View AI-Generated Resumes17:17 CJ’s Chief of Staff Hiring Story19:15 The Data: Is AI Adoption Already Slowing?22:42 Crossing the Chasm: Early Adopters to Early Majority26:22 The Streaming Analogy and Forced AI Bundles28:49 The Circular AI Economy (Everyone Funding Everyone)31:15 Betting It All on AGI and Data Centers34:09 The Margin: AI Erotica and the Peak of the Bubble35:23 Business Blunders: OpenAI’s Token Leaderboard41:43 What Kyle Tried This Week: Building an AI Agent44:52 Wrap-Up and OutroEpisodes Referenced:5,762 Job Applications. Zero Offers.Why Only 2% of Startups Make ItThe War for Talent is just getting started | Joe FloydLinks:https://usps-mailin-it.simplecast.com/https://i.imgflip.com/a92oy5.jpghttps://tabs.inc/webinar/tabs-agenthttps://substack.com/@kylepoyar/note/c-159017468?https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/07/business/ai-chatbot-prompts-resumes.html?_bhlid=1b5906cdc6781a738a150d9c32f846ebf11fc318https://substack.com/home/post/p-175615945https://ramp.com/data/ai-index?utm_source=econlab.substack.comhttps://medium.com/@samuelvandeth/crossing-the-chasm-162802d1cf27https://x.com/TrungTPhan/status/1922669292929024017/photo/1https://kyla.substack.com/p/ai-is-the-market-and-the-market-is?r=cxcvo&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=truehttps://x.com/zerohedge/status/1977902195472322620?s=42https://topline.beehiiv.com/p/the-era-of-haves-and-have-notshttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpd2qv58yl5ohttps://www.linkedin.com/posts/cj-gustafson-13140948_imagine-getting-called-into-your-cfos-office-activity-7381681514532458496-NOqa/https://fortune.com/2025/10/01/red-lobster-ceo-damola-adamolekun-comeback-plan-bankruptcy/https://fortune.com/2024/11/13/red-lobster-ceo-damola-adamolekun-says-endless-shrimp-is-never-coming-back/#https://www.relay.app/