EPISODE · Jun 18, 2026 · 8 MIN
The 2.26 Percent Breakeven That Has the Fed Second-Guessing
from The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy · host Fexingo
This episode dives into one of the most telling signals the bond market is sending right now: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has dropped to 2.26 percent, well below the current CPI reading of 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna explore what this gap means for the Federal Reserve's next move, why the breakeven is falling even as headline inflation remains sticky, and how the Fed's new chairman Kevin Warsh might interpret the data. They also discuss the surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million and what that says about the labour market's resilience. If you want to understand why the bond market and the Fed seem to be speaking different languages right now, this episode lays it out clearly. #BreakevenInflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #Inflation #KevinWarsh #CPI #JobOpenings #JOLTS #10YearYield #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FOMC #RealRates #LaborMarket #TIPS #Macro #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
What this episode covers
This episode dives into one of the most telling signals the bond market is sending right now: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has dropped to 2.26 percent, well below the current CPI reading of 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna explore what this gap means for the Federal Reserve's next move, why the breakeven is falling even as headline inflation remains sticky, and how the Fed's new chairman Kevin Warsh might interpret the data. They also discuss the surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million and what that says about the labour market's resilience. If you want to understand why the bond market and the Fed seem to be speaking different languages right now, this episode lays it out clearly. #BreakevenInflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #Inflation #KevinWarsh #CPI #JobOpenings #JOLTS #10YearYield #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FOMC #RealRates #LaborMarket #TIPS #Macro #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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The 2.26 Percent Breakeven That Has the Fed Second-Guessing
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