The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy

Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising trend that's reshaping the U.S. job market: labor force participation is creeping higher even as the unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent. With nonfarm payrolls at 159 million and job openings jumping to 7.6 million, they explore why more people entering the workforce isn't the sign of weakness some think it is. Drawing on recent JOLTS data, wage growth holding at $37.50 an hour, and the Fed's 3.63 percent rate, they unpack how this dynamic is keeping the economy in a sweet spot — and why it might complicate the Fed's next move. A focused look at the participation puzzle that most headlines are missing. #LaborForceParticipation #Economics #JobMarket #UnemploymentRate #JOLTS #NonfarmPayrolls #WageGrowth #FederalReserve #FedPolicy #Inflation #LaborMarket #ParticipationRate #EconomicData #Macroeconomics #JobsReport #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheMacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Average hourly earnings just ticked up to $37.50, but core PCE inflation is stubbornly at 3.4%. Lucas and Luna unpack a paradox that has economists divided: wage growth that isn't feeding price spikes. They trace the disconnect through productivity data, sectoral shifts, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A close look at whether the labor market can keep delivering raises without reigniting the inflation that central bankers fear most. #WageGrowth #Inflation #FederalReserve #CorePCE #LaborMarket #Productivity #AverageHourlyEarnings #Economics #FedPolicy #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheMacroMemo #LucasAndLuna #HourlyEarnings #PriceStability #JobMarket #EconomicData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the widening divergence between core CPI and core PCE inflation. Core CPI hit 336.1 in May, up 3.4% year-over-year, while core PCE sits at 130.1 with a 2.8% annual rate. Lucas explains why the Fed focuses on PCE — it accounts for substitution effects and covers more goods — and why the gap matters for rate expectations. They discuss what the data means for the Fed's next move as the effective fed funds rate holds at 3.63% and the 10-year breakeven inflation dips to 2.20%. A tight episode for anyone tracking the real inflation picture beyond the headlines. #CoreCPI #CorePCE #InflationGap #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #FedFundsRate #BreakevenInflation #ConsumerPriceIndex #PersonalConsumptionExpenditures #USInflation #Economics #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #DailyEconomics #LucasAndLuna #InflationData #RateCuts Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped sharply over the past week, even as core inflation remains stubbornly above 3 percent. Lucas and Luna break down the paradox: bond markets are pricing in a growth scare, not an inflation victory. They examine the recent 10-year breakeven rate slipping to 2.20 percent, the yield curve inversion deepening, and what the divergence between the 2-year and 10-year yields signals about recession risk. The hosts also discuss how the Fed's next move might be shaped by falling long-term rates rather than rising inflation. A data-driven look at what the bond market is telling us about the economy that equity markets haven't priced in yet. #TreasuryYield #BondMarket #YieldCurve #Inflation #FederalReserve #RecessionRisk #BreakevenRate #CoreInflation #EconomicGrowth #GrowthScare #InterestRates #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #LucasAndLuna #Podcast #MarketData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest core PCE reading of 3.4 percent, the highest since October 2023, and explore why inflation is proving stickier than the Fed anticipated. They examine the divergence between goods and services prices, the role of housing costs, and what the 10-year breakeven rate of 2.20 percent signals about market expectations. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent, the conversation turns to whether policymakers can afford to hold steady or may need to hike again. The hosts also touch on the surprising resilience of job openings and what that means for wage pressures. A focused episode on the inflation dynamics that are keeping the Fed up at night. #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FedFundsRate #BreakevenRate #HousingInflation #ServicesInflation #GoodsPrices #WageGrowth #JobOpenings #JOLTS #EconomicData #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest inflation data: core PCE hit 3.4% in May, the highest since October 2023. They discuss what this means for the Fed's next move, whether the bond market is buying the narrative, and why the 10-year breakeven rate is actually dropping. With the fed funds rate at 3.63%, the hosts explore the tension between sticky inflation and a weakening labor market, and what that signals for the rest of 2026. #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #MacroMemo #Economics #Business #Finance #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedPolicy #BondMarket #BreakevenRate #LaborMarket #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #EconomicData #USInflation Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna break down the May core PCE inflation print of 3.4 percent, the highest since October 2023. They discuss what this means for the Fed's next move, why the 10-year breakeven rate is falling despite hot inflation data, and how job openings and wage growth complicate the picture. The hosts also explore whether the Fed's current 3.63 percent funds rate is tight enough to cool the economy, or if more hikes could be on the table. A focused look at the data that matters most in late June 2026. #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #JobOpenings #WageGrowth #BreakevenRate #BondMarket #EconomicData #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #GDP #LaborMarket #FedFundsRate #InflationOutlook Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 77 of The Macro Memo digs into the latest core PCE inflation reading of 3.4 percent — the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna break down why this number matters more than CPI, how the 10-year breakeven at 2.21 percent tells a different story, and what it means for the Fed's next move. They also explore the contradiction between sticky services inflation and easing goods prices, and whether the bond market is betting the Fed will look through this data. Tied to real GDP growth of 2.1 percent and a Fed funds rate of 3.63 percent. #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #PCE #FedPolicy #10YearBreakeven #GDP #BondMarket #MonetaryPolicy #ServicesInflation #RealGDP #InterestRates #InflationOutlook #EconomicData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate — currently at 2.21 percent — and explain why it's sending a more reassuring signal than the headline CPI or core PCE numbers. They unpack the mechanics of TIPS versus nominal Treasuries, why the breakeven has barely budged even as the core PCE hit 3.4 percent in May, and what this divergence means for the Fed's next move. With the fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent and real GDP growth running at just 2.1 percent annualized, the bond market is betting that today's inflation spike is transitory. Lucas and Luna explore whether that bet holds up — and what happens if it doesn't. Specific, data-driven, and grounded in the latest figures as of June 26, 2026. #BreakevenInflation #FederalReserve #TIPS #NominalTreasuries #CorePCE #Inflation #BondMarket #EconomicIndicators #FedPolicy #RealRates #CPI #Macro #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TreasuryYields #LucasAndLuna #TransitoryInflation Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the May core inflation reading of 3.4 percent, the highest since October 2023. They explore how this complicates the Fed's path, especially with the federal funds rate at 3.63 percent and the ten-year breakeven dropping below 2.2 percent. The hosts discuss whether the bond market is signaling a recession or simply adjusting expectations, and what the surge in job openings to 7.6 million tells us about labor market resilience. They also examine the disconnect between strong hiring signals and rising factory layoffs, and consider what the inverted yield curve implies for growth ahead. This episode is grounded in the latest data from June 25, 2026, and offers a clear, conversational take on the macro crosscurrents facing policymakers and investors. #CoreCPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #BreakevenInflation #FedFundsRate #JobOpenings #JOLTS #FactoryLayoffs #YieldCurve #RecessionSignal #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #Economics #MonetaryPolicy #LaborMarket Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On June 25, 2026, the Russell 2000 is up 2.4 percent over five days while the Nasdaq has dropped 2.1 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack what this small-cap outperformance means for the economy, the Fed, and recession odds. They examine the data: job openings jumped to 7.6 million, factory job cuts are near 2008 levels, and the 10-year breakeven is falling. Is the market pricing a soft landing or a rotation into domestic cyclicals? Lucas argues this is a classic late-cycle rotation; Luna pushes back, pointing to the bond market's recession signal. They also discuss what the Fed's next move might be with the funds rate at 3.63 percent and inflation still above target. #SmallCaps #Russell2000 #Nasdaq #MarketRotation #FederalReserve #Inflation #JobOpenings #FactoryLayoffs #RecessionSignal #BondMarket #BreakevenRate #SoftLanding #LateCycle #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking disconnect: factory job cuts in June 2026 are at levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid shutdowns, yet the headline jobs market remains strong. Using the latest data including JOLTS job openings at 7.6 million and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate, they explore what's driving the manufacturing slowdown and why it matters for the Fed's rate path. They discuss the role of the strong dollar, the lag effect of rate hikes, and structural shifts in global trade. A focused look at one corner of the economy that may be signaling something bigger. #FactoryLayoffs #Manufacturing #JobsReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicSlowdown #JOLTS #Unemployment #StrongDollar #TradePolicy #RecessionSignals #LaborMarket #SupplyChain #Inflation #RateCuts #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheMacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Factory job cuts in June hit levels not seen since 2008 and 2020, even as overall job openings rebounded to 7.6 million. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect: why manufacturing is bleeding workers while services hiring stays robust. They look at the yield curve, the Fed's 3.63 percent rate, and what the data says about structural change versus cyclical slowdown. Plus, a real-talk moment about what keeps this show ad-free. #FactoryJobCuts #Manufacturing #JOLTS #JobOpenings #FedPolicy #InterestRates #YieldCurve #UnemploymentRate #EconomicData #LaborMarket #RecessionSignals #SAndP500 #SmallBusiness #Layoffs #Economics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #MacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

New data shows factory job cuts in June 2026 are running at levels not seen since the financial crisis and the early pandemic. Lucas and Luna dig into the S&P report, what it means for manufacturing employment, and whether this is a warning sign for the broader economy. They examine the 159 million nonfarm payrolls figure against the JOLTS job openings spike, and ask if the Federal Reserve is paying attention. The hosts also discuss what the bond market is signaling through the 10-year breakeven rate now at 2.23 percent. A focused conversation on one alarming data point and its implications for workers, investors, and policy. #FactoryJobCuts #Manufacturing #Employment #S&P #June2026 #FinancialCrisis #Covid #Layoffs #JOLTS #JobOpenings #NonfarmPayrolls #FedPolicy #BreakevenRate #BondMarket #Economics #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In episode 70 of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest slide in the 10-year breakeven inflation rate—now at 2.23 percent, down from over 2.45 just a few months ago. They explore what this market-based inflation expectation says about the Fed's next move, especially with the fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent and real GDP growth crawling at 1.6 percent. Could the breakeven be signaling that the bond market doubts the Fed's ability to tame inflation without tipping the economy into recession? Lucas brings in recent data on job openings, which jumped to 7.6 million, and the puzzling gap between surging vacancies and sluggish hiring. Luna challenges the conventional read on breakevens, pointing out that falling oil prices and the Iran war relief headline might be distorting the signal. Together, they unpack what the breakeven actually tells us about real rates, inflation risk, and whether Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting already shifted market expectations. No hot takes, just a careful look at one number that sums up the whole macro dilemma. #BreakevenRate #InflationExpectations #FederalReserve #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #InterestRates #RealGDP #JobOpenings #BondMarket #KevinWarsh #FOMC #10YearBreakeven #CoreCPI #LaborMarket #RatePolicy #MarketSignals Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but recently the 2-year Treasury yield jumped above 4.29 percent while the 10-year sits at 4.51 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into what this persistent inversion means for the economy, especially with the Fed holding rates at 3.63 percent and inflation still above target. They discuss how the curve has historically predicted recessions, why this time might be different, and what the bond market is pricing in for growth. The conversation touches on the Fed's new chairman Kevin Warsh and the challenge of balancing sticky core CPI against slowing real GDP growth of just 1.6 percent. With breakeven inflation at 2.25 percent, the hosts explore whether the bond market is signaling a soft landing or a downturn ahead. #YieldCurve #RecessionSignal #BondMarket #FedPolicy #KevinWarsh #TreasuryYields #Inversion #EconomicForecast #RealGDP #CoreCPI #BreakevenInflation #SoftLanding #HardLanding #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheMacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Job openings surged to 7.6 million in April 2026, but hiring remains sluggish. Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS data to understand what's really happening in the labor market. They discuss the gap between openings and hires, why quits are low, and what this means for the Fed's next move. With the fed funds rate at 3.63% and inflation still above target, the hosts explore whether the labor market is signaling a soft landing or something more concerning. Specific data points like the 159 million total nonfarm payrolls and the 4.3% unemployment rate ground the conversation. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #FedPolicy #Inflation #Economics #Hiring #QuitsRate #SoftLanding #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #Unemployment #WageGrowth #MonetaryPolicy #JobMarket Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Fed has held the federal funds rate at 3.63 percent since May, and while headline inflation is slowly cooling, a less obvious casualty is emerging: small business lending. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine new data from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey showing that banks are tightening credit standards for small firms at the fastest pace since 2020. With the prime rate tied to the funds rate, variable-rate loans for Main Street businesses now carry interest costs near 8 percent. The hosts break down why this is happening, how it ties to the inverted yield curve—with the 2-year Treasury at 4.22 percent and the 10-year at 4.45 percent—and what the recent 1.6 percent annualized GDP growth figure means for the odds of a Fed pivot later this year. They also discuss why job openings surged to 7.6 million in April even as hiring stayed tepid, a sign that businesses want workers but can't afford the capital to expand. No hot takes, just the mechanics of monetary policy transmission through the real economy. #SmallBusinessLending #FedFundsRate #MonetaryPolicy #CreditCrunch #InvertedYieldCurve #PrimeRate #KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #GDPGrowth #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LoanOfficerSurvey #MainStreet #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroMemo #InterestRates Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest jobless claims and JOLTS data to understand a puzzling labor market: initial claims dropped to 226,000, but job openings surged to 7.6 million while hiring remains sluggish. They explore why employers are posting more positions but not filling them, and what this means for the Fed's next move. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63% and inflation still above target, the hosts discuss whether the job market is sending mixed signals or revealing a structural shift. This episode offers a fresh angle on the labor market disconnect, grounded in specific data points and real-world implications for workers and policymakers. #JoblessClaims #JOLTS #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #Inflation #Economics #Unemployment #Hiring #JobOpenings #FedFundsRate #CoreCPI #BusinessNews #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroMemo #DataDriven #EconomicIndicators #PodcastEpisode Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest JOLTS data showing job openings surged to 7.6 million in April while hiring remains tepid. They explore why employers are posting more roles but not filling them, connecting the dots to wage growth, the Fed's rate calculus, and the broader labor market mystery. With the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3 percent and average hourly earnings creeping up, the hosts debate whether this is a sign of structural mismatch or just cautious hiring. Specific data points include the 7,618,000 job openings figure, the 159 million payrolls count, and the 3.63 percent fed funds rate. Perfect for anyone trying to understand why the job market feels hot and cold at the same time. #JobOpenings #JOLTS #LaborMarket #HiringSluggish #WageGrowth #FedPolicy #Unemployment #EconomicMystery #StructuralMismatch #MacroMemo #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FederalReserve #AverageHourlyEarnings #NonfarmPayrolls #JoblessClaims #KevinWarsh Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The US economy has 159 million payroll jobs and 7.6 million open positions, yet the unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent and job seekers are struggling. Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS data from April 2026 to understand why record-high job openings aren't translating into easy hiring — and what the mismatch between openings and hires means for wages, inflation, and the Fed's next move. They explore the 'quits rate' as a signal of worker confidence, the Beveridge curve's recent shift, and why Nevada's booming labor market might be the outlier that proves the rule. Plus, a listener-supported moment tied to the value of understanding how the job market really works. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #Hiring #QuitsRate #BeveridgeCurve #Unemployment #WageGrowth #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #NevadaJobs #EconomicData #Inflation #JobSearch #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheMacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna take a deep dive into one of the most confusing signals in the current economy: job openings are spiking, but hiring isn't keeping pace. With JOLTS data for April showing 7.6 million openings — up sharply from 6.9 million the month before — the hosts explore what's driving the disconnect. They look at the role of worker skill mismatches, the impact of remote work on job search dynamics, and how the Fed's rate of 3.63 percent is shaping business decisions. Lucas points out that the ratio of unemployed workers to job openings has fallen below 0.8, a level that historically signals a tight labor market. But with unemployment stuck at 4.3 percent and wage growth modest at 37.5 dollars per hour, the hosts question whether the labor market is as strong as the headline numbers suggest. They also consider how the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, might interpret this data in his first few months on the job. #JobOpenings #JOLTS #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #KevinWarsh #Unemployment #WageGrowth #SkillsGap #RemoteWork #Economics #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FederalReserve #Inflation #HiringSlowdown #EconomicData #PodcastEpisode Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna unpack Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chairman on June 18, 2026, and what his approach signals for monetary policy. They zero in on the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which has dropped to 2.25 percent, and what that says about the market's view of inflation expectations under new leadership. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and CPI at 4.2 percent, the hosts discuss whether Warsh will prioritize credibility or flexibility. Specific data points include the 2.25 percent breakeven, the 3.63 percent effective fed funds rate, and the latest JOLTS job openings figure of 7.618 million. The episode explores the tension between the bond market's declining inflation expectations and the Fed's cautious stance, and what that means for rate cuts later this year. #KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #BreakevenInflation #MonetaryPolicy #FedMeeting #InflationExpectations #BondMarket #10YearTreasury #FedFundsRate #JOLTS #JobOpenings #CPI #Economics #TheMacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #CentralBank Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

This episode dives into one of the most telling signals the bond market is sending right now: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has dropped to 2.26 percent, well below the current CPI reading of 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna explore what this gap means for the Federal Reserve's next move, why the breakeven is falling even as headline inflation remains sticky, and how the Fed's new chairman Kevin Warsh might interpret the data. They also discuss the surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million and what that says about the labour market's resilience. If you want to understand why the bond market and the Fed seem to be speaking different languages right now, this episode lays it out clearly. #BreakevenInflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #Inflation #KevinWarsh #CPI #JobOpenings #JOLTS #10YearYield #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FOMC #RealRates #LaborMarket #TIPS #Macro #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising April JOLTS report, which showed job openings jumping to 7.6 million from 6.9 million. They explore why this surge matters for the Fed's inflation fight, how it complicates the path to rate cuts, and what it reveals about the labor market's resilience. With the fed funds rate at 3.63% and core CPI still elevated, the hosts discuss whether this data point is a signal of strength or a headache for policymakers. They also touch on the 10-year breakeven dropping to 2.26% and what bond markets are pricing in. A focused conversation on one key indicator and its ripple effects. #JobOpenings #JOLTS #FederalReserve #Inflation #LaborMarket #MonetaryPolicy #BondMarket #BreakevenRate #CoreCPI #FedFundsRate #EconomicData #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #InterestRates #Employment #RateCuts Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has fallen to 2.29 percent, its lowest in months, even as the consumer price index sits at 4.2 percent year-over-year and wholesale prices just surged 1.1 percent in May. Lucas and Luna break down what this divergence means: the bond market is signaling that inflation expectations are cooling, but the real economy and the Fed are still dealing with sticky price pressures. They explore whether the breakeven is a reliable leading indicator or a misleading signal shaped by energy shocks, global demand fears, and the Fed's own policy stance. Along the way, they touch on the inverted yield curve, the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent, and what the next CPI and PCE prints could reveal. This episode draws on the latest market data from June 17, 2026, and recent headlines including the wholesale price surge and the UK's economic contraction. #BreakevenInflation #BondMarket #FederalReserve #InflationExpectations #ConsumerPriceIndex #WholesalePrices #TenYearTreasury #RealRates #EconomicIndicators #MonetaryPolicy #TIPS #YieldCurve #FedFundsRate #JOLTS #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #Economics #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the bond market's recent rally and what it tells us about where the Fed is heading. With the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.43 percent — down more than a full percentage point from its 2025 high — the fixed-income crowd is pricing in a pivot. Lucas walks through the mechanics: falling breakeven inflation, the 2-year versus 10-year spread, and the Fed's real rate dilemma at 3.63 percent. Luna pushes back on whether the bond market has been right about the economy over the past two years. They land on a core question: when the bond market and the Fed disagree, who's usually wrong? #BondMarket #FederalReserve #TreasuryYields #Inflation #RatePivot #EconomicOutlook #RealRates #BreakevenInflation #YieldCurve #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroMemo #LucasAndLuna #FixedIncome #RecessionSignal Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

With the S&P 500 hitting a fresh all-time high and the ten-year Treasury yield dropping 2.6% in a week, markets are sending two contradictory messages about the economy. Lucas and Luna break down the divergence: stocks are pricing in a goldilocks scenario of steady growth and eventual rate cuts, while bonds are signaling rising recession risk. They examine the recent data—CPI at 4.2%, the Fed stuck at 3.6%, and a jump in job openings to 7.6 million—and ask which market is right. The episode also explores how the yield curve's recent uninversion fits into this picture, and what history says about the odds of a hard landing when stocks and bonds disagree this sharply. #BondMarket #RecessionRisk #S&P500 #TreasuryYield #FedPolicy #Inflation #JOLTS #YieldCurve #StockMarket #Economics #InterestRates #GDP #JobsReport #CentralBanking #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroMemo #MarketDivergence Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Federal Reserve faces a tough spot: the fed funds rate sits at 3.6 percent while inflation runs at 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the real rate trap—how high rates aren't high enough to cool prices. Using fresh data from June 2026, they explore why the Fed can't cut without reigniting inflation but can't hike without choking growth. They look at the JOLTS job openings surge to 7.6 million, the ECB's first rate hike since 2023, and what the bond market's yield curve is really saying. If you want to understand why the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place, this episode breaks down the numbers and the dilemma. No hot takes, just the economic logic behind one of the Fed's hardest decisions in years. #FederalReserve #Inflation #FedFundsRate #RealRate #JOLTS #JobOpenings #ECB #BondMarket #YieldCurve #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #LucasAndLuna #Economy #RateHike Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into the contradiction at the heart of Fed policy in mid-2026: the federal funds rate sits at 3.63 percent, but with CPI running at 4.2 percent, the real interest rate is negative. They break down why that matters for the economy, what it signals about the Fed's next move, and how the ECB's recent rate hike complicates the picture further. Using data on the 10-year breakeven inflation rate and the surprising surge in job openings, the hosts explain why the Fed may be caught between inflation that won't cool and a rate it can't cut without risking a recession. A sharp, current conversation on the limits of monetary policy when real rates are negative. #FederalReserve #Inflation #RealInterestRates #CPI #MonetaryPolicy #ECB #JobOpenings #JOLTS #BreakevenInflation #FedFundsRate #NegativeRealRate #Economics #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #RateHike #USEconomy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 54 of The Macro Memo tackles a surprising disconnect in the bond market: the yield curve has been steepening sharply this spring, but the steepening is happening for the wrong reasons. Lucas and Luna dissect the divergence between the two-year yield, which is actually falling amid rate-cut expectations, and the ten-year yield, which is climbing on supply fears and term premium repricing. They walk through the specific numbers from the June 15 market data—the two-year at 3.62 percent, the ten-year at 4.49 percent, the thirty-year pushing toward 5 percent—and explain why this pattern has historically preceded economic slowdowns, not accelerations. The episode also explores how the ECB's first rate hike since 2023 and the surge in wholesale energy costs are feeding into this dynamic, and what it means for the Fed's next move. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the bond market's real message about growth and inflation in mid-2026. #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #TermPremium #TwoYearYield #TenYearYield #SteepeningCurve #ECB #WholesaleInflation #EnergyShock #EconomicGrowth #RecessionSignal #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into the Federal Reserve's current bind: inflation running at 4.2 percent annually, the effective fed funds rate at 3.63 percent, and real GDP growth just 1.6 percent. With the Fed's policy rate still below inflation, real interest rates are negative—something that hasn't happened this deep into a tightening cycle in decades. They examine the May CPI print, the flat unemployment rate at 4.3 percent, and the surprising surge in job openings to 7.6 million. The hosts ask whether the Fed can cut rates without reigniting inflation, or whether holding steady risks deepening the economic slowdown. A close look at the data the FOMC will be debating at their next meeting, and what it means for markets and households. #FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #CPI #FedPolicy #RealRates #GDP #JobOpenings #JOLTS #Unemployment #MonetaryPolicy #Economy #FOMC #RateCuts #Stagflation #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into the widening gap between consumer confidence and actual spending. With inflation at 4.2% and real GDP growth just 1.6%, Americans are still swiping cards at a pace that has the Fed puzzled. They examine the May retail sales data, the savings rate drop, and what it means for the Fed's next move. Plus, they compare the current environment to the 1970s 'conundrum' that fooled policymakers for years. A focused look at why the consumer isn't reacting the way models predict. #ConsumerSpending #Inflation #FederalReserve #RetailSales #GDP #SavingsRate #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #MayRetailSales #ConsumerConfidence #FedPolicy #EconomicGrowth #RecessionSignal #1970sEconomy #SpendingVsConfidence #RealGDP Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The April JOLTS report showed job openings jumping to 7.62 million, a massive rebound from March's 6.89 million. Lucas and Luna break down what this means for the Fed's next move, why it complicates the inflation fight, and how it connects to the 4.2% CPI reading. They also explore whether this is a genuine labor market strength signal or a statistical noise problem. Specific numbers, clear analysis, and no filler. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #FederalReserve #Inflation #LaborMarket #CPI #MonetaryPolicy #Economy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheMacroMemo #LucasAndLuna #April2026 #InterestRates #WageGrowth #DataDriven #PodcastEpisode Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In Episode 50 of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine the growing disconnect between the Federal Reserve's policy rate at 3.62 percent and headline inflation at 4.2 percent. With the ECB hiking for the first time since 2023 and wholesale prices surging 1.1 percent in May, the conversation focuses on whether the Fed is now behind the curve. Lucas breaks down the real fed funds rate math, the signal from rising breakeven inflation, and what it means for the neutral rate debate. The hosts also discuss how the Iran conflict and energy costs are complicating the Fed's path. A must-listen for anyone tracking central bank policy in a volatile macro environment. #FederalReserve #Inflation #FedFundsRate #RealRates #MonetaryPolicy #ECB #InterestRates #CPI #WholesaleInflation #NeutralRate #BreakevenInflation #CorePCE #EnergyPrices #IranConflict #MacroEconomics #CentralBanks #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna unpack the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike on June 11, 2026 — its first since 2023 — and what it means for the Federal Reserve's next move. With US CPI at 4.2 percent and wholesale prices surging 1.1 percent in May, the hosts explore how the Iran conflict is driving energy costs higher on both sides of the Atlantic. Lucas explains why the ECB's move could force the Fed to hold rates steady into 2027, even as markets price in cuts. Luna brings in data on the ten-year breakeven inflation rate dropping to 2.29 percent, a sign that bond markets see long-run inflation anchored despite near-term spikes. The episode closes with a question: will the Fed hike if energy keeps climbing? Includes a brief, organic mention of listener support via buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. #ECB #RateHike #FederalReserve #Inflation #CPI #PPI #IranConflict #EnergyCosts #MonetaryPolicy #CentralBanks #BreakevenInflation #BondMarket #EconomicIndicators #MacroMemo #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The May CPI print hit 4.2%, but the bigger story might be the wholesale inflation surprise. Producer prices rose 1.1% in May, driven by a surge in energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down why this matters for the Fed's next move, how the ECB's rate hike complicates the picture, and why the bond market's breakeven inflation rate is telling a different story. They also look at how small businesses are getting squeezed by input costs that aren't showing up in consumer inflation surveys yet. Specific numbers, real economics, no hot takes. #WholesaleInflation #PPI #CPI #FederalReserve #ECB #IranConflict #EnergyPrices #Inflation #BondMarket #BreakevenInflation #SmallBusiness #MonetaryPolicy #RateHike #EconomicData #ProducerPrices #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

This episode of The Macro Memo drills into the wholesale inflation surprise from May 2026 — the Producer Price Index came in at 1.1 percent, driven largely by energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down how this upstream price pressure is affecting the Fed's rate path, despite signs of cooling in consumer expectations. They discuss the implications for the ten-year breakeven inflation rate, which has dipped to 2.29 percent, and whether the Fed can hold its current 3.62 percent rate through the summer. The conversation also touches on the ECB's recent rate hike and what it signals about global energy-driven inflation. A tight, data-driven look at a key inflection point in the inflation narrative. #WholesaleInflation #PPI #ProducerPriceIndex #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EnergyPrices #IranConflict #ECB #TenYearBreakeven #MacroEconomics #GDP #CPI #MonetaryPolicy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On June 11, 2026, the European Central Bank hiked interest rates for the first time since 2023, a direct response to energy price surges linked to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down why this matters for American inflation, the Fed's next move, and the global yield curve. They discuss the ECB's decision in the context of US CPI hitting 4.2%, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rising to 2.34%, and what the dollar-euro dynamic means for your portfolio. Plus: how wholesale prices rose 1.1% in May and what that signals for core PCE. A focused conversation on the transmission mechanism from Frankfurt to Main Street. #ECB #InterestRates #Inflation #FederalReserve #CPI #WholesalePrices #EnergyPrices #IranConflict #Dollar #YieldCurve #CorePCE #JOLTS #LaborMarket #Economics #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #GlobalEconomy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Consumer prices rose 4.2% annually in May, the highest reading in three years. Lucas and Luna break down the CPI print released this morning, what's driving the acceleration — shelter and energy are the big culprits — and why this complicates the Fed's rate-cut timeline. They also look at the bond market's reaction: the ten-year yield hit 4.54% and the two-year is at 4.26%, deepening the yield curve inversion. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63%, real rates are turning increasingly negative for consumers. Is stagflation a real risk, or just a buzzword? The hosts drill into the data without the panic. #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #BondMarket #YieldCurve #ShelterInflation #EnergyPrices #CoreCPI #RealRates #Stagflation #FedPolicy #MacroEconomics #MayCPI #TreasuryYields #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheMacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine the growing disconnect between consumer confidence and actual spending. With the New York Fed's household financial anxiety index hitting a four-year high in June 2026, but retail sales still holding up, the hosts break down what's driving this paradox. They look at the May CPI print of 4.2% annual inflation—the highest in three years—and how it's cutting into real wage gains despite nominal hourly earnings rising to $37.50. They also discuss the surprising surge in JOLTS job openings to 7.6 million, and why that hasn't translated into lower unemployment or higher consumer sentiment. Lucas argues that the key is the 'wealth effect' from rising asset prices, especially among higher-income households, while lower-income groups are feeling the sting of inflation. Luna points out that the labor market is becoming more bifurcated, with part-time work surging. The conversation ties it all together: why the Fed faces a tricky path, and what the yield curve's recent uninversion might really mean for the economy. #ConsumerConfidence #Inflation #FederalReserve #JOLTS #LaborMarket #CPI #WealthEffect #Spending #HouseholdFinances #NewYorkFed #YieldCurve #Economics #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #Economy #June2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

While headlines focus on a tight labor market and sticky services inflation, U.S. manufacturing has been contracting for 23 consecutive months. Lucas and Luna unpack why the factory sector keeps shrinking even as the broader economy grows, what it means for the Fed's rate path, and why the divergence between goods and services has become the defining puzzle of 2026. They cite the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the collapse in industrial production ex-autos, and the regional Fed surveys that show a two-speed economy. A concrete look at the quiet recession happening inside America's factory floors. #Manufacturing #ISM #IndustrialProduction #FedPolicy #TwoSpeedEconomy #GoodsDeflation #ServicesInflation #RegionalFedSurveys #FactoryRecession #SupplyChain #InterestRates #EconomicData #Macro #BusinessCycle #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsShow #TheMacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

While the unemployment rate holds at 4.3 percent and job openings have rebounded sharply to 7.6 million, a quieter trend is reshaping the labor market: the number of Americans working part-time for economic reasons has climbed to levels not seen outside a recession since 2021. Lucas and Luna unpack the Bureau of Labor Statistics' underemployment data, explain why the U-6 rate matters more than the headline U-3 number right now, and discuss what rising involuntary part-time work signals about labor slack — and why the Fed might care more about this than the JOLTS headline. Using the May 2026 jobs report as a backdrop, they connect the dots between long-term unemployment, falling average hours worked, and the household financial anxiety that hit a four-year high last week. This is the hidden job market signal that most market commentary is missing. #U6Rate #Underemployment #PartTimeWork #LaborMarket #JobMarket #BureauOfLaborStatistics #MayJobsReport #Unemployment #FederalReserve #Inflation #WageGrowth #EconomicSlack #HouseholdFinances #NewYorkFed #JobOpenings #JOLTS #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The yield curve has been inverted for nearly three years, the longest stretch in modern history. Now it's beginning to steepen again, but GDP is still growing and unemployment is 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of this curve, what the 2-10 year spread is actually signaling, and why the old recession rule might not apply this time. They look at the ten-year Treasury at 4.55 percent, the Fed funds rate at 3.62 percent, and the real GDP growth rate of 1.6 percent to make sense of the disconnect. Is this a soft landing or just a delayed reckoning? The hosts walk through historical normals, term premium, and what the bond market is pricing for rate cuts later this year. #YieldCurve #Inversion #Recession #FederalReserve #BondMarket #Treasury #GDP #SoftLanding #TermPremium #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MonetaryPolicy #RateCuts #Macro #MarketSignal #Steepener Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking new data point: the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations shows household financial worries at their highest level since July 2022. They connect this to the gap between strong aggregate economic data and rising personal anxiety, referencing the 4.3% unemployment rate, the 4.55% ten-year yield, and the 7.6 million job openings from the latest JOLTS report. The hosts explore why consumers feel worse despite low joblessness and what this divergence means for the Fed's rate path. Lucas charts the evolution from 'vibecession' to 'vibecession 2.0,' and they debate whether this is a lagging indicator or a leading warning for consumer spending. A concise, data-rich conversation for listeners who want the real story behind the headlines. #NewYorkFed #ConsumerExpectations #HouseholdFinances #FinancialAnxiety #Vibecession #UnemploymentRate #JOLTS #TenYearYield #ConsumerSpending #FedPolicy #RateCuts #EconomicData #LaborMarket #Inflation #RealWages #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine a confusing signal in the latest economic data: average hourly earnings are up to $37.50, accelerating at a 3.8 percent annual rate, yet core PCE inflation is stuck at 3.3 percent. They unpack the question on every macro investor's mind — are higher wages feeding into sticky services inflation, or is the economy just absorbing the cost without passing it through? Using the April CPI and PCE releases, plus the May ADP payrolls number of 122,000, they drill into the composition of wage growth by sector and the implications for the Fed's rate path. The conversation also touches on the surge in long-term unemployment as a potential wage dampener, and what Friday's May jobs report could reveal about whether this trend is sustainable. A focused, numbers-driven look at the wage-price spiral debate as of June 2026. #WageGrowth #StickyInflation #FederalReserve #CorePCE #AverageHourlyEarnings #UnemploymentRate #ADPPayrolls #JobsReport #LaborMarket #ServicesInflation #WagePriceSpiral #MacroEconomics #FOMC #RateCuts #LongTermUnemployment #CPI #InflationData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Long-term interest rates are rising even as the Fed holds short rates steady. The yield curve has inverted for over two years, but stock markets are near highs. In this episode, Lucas and Luna sift through the data on what the bond market is actually signaling. They look at the spread between the 10-year Treasury at 4.54 percent and the 2-year at 4.28 percent, the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.62 percent, and why this persistent inversion feels different from past cycles. The conversation then turns to what it means for borrowing costs, corporate investment, and whether recession warnings have expired. Specific numbers and real economic context cut through the noise. #YieldCurve #BondMarket #Recession #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Treasury #Inflation #EconomicOutlook #MacroEconomics #MonetaryPolicy #Investing #StockMarket #BondYield #GDP #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsPodcast #MacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna break down the May 2026 jobs report data, digging into the payrolls number that beat expectations and the long-term unemployment surge that markets are undervaluing. They discuss what the 4.3 percent unemployment rate actually signals, why job openings jumped to 7.6 million, and how the Fed is likely to interpret the conflicting signals. A focused look at one labor market paradox that changes the rate-cut timeline. #MayJobsReport #LaborMarket #Unemployment #LongTermUnemployment #JOLTS #JobOpenings #NonfarmPayrolls #FederalReserve #RateCuts #ADP #Inflation #JobsFriday #LaborForce #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MacroMemo #EconomicData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

With the May jobs report dropping tomorrow, Lucas and Luna break down what the data is likely to show and why markets might be misreading the trend. They focus on a key tension: job openings have surged past 7.6 million, but long-term unemployment is also climbing. The hosts explain how these two signals coexist and what they mean for the Fed's next move. They also examine the ADP private payrolls number of 122,000 and what it tells us about hiring momentum. Anchored in the latest JOLTS and unemployment data, this episode helps you see past the headline number. #JobsReport #May2026 #LaborMarket #JOLTS #Unemployment #FedPolicy #RateCuts #ADP #NonfarmPayrolls #LongTermUnemployment #EconomicData #Inflation #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economy #CentralBanking #LaborForce Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent, historically low. But beneath that headline number, long-term unemployment—people out of work for 27 weeks or more—has jumped nearly 20 percent since last year. Lucas and Luna dig into the May jobs data, the JOLTS surge to 7.6 million openings, and the structural mismatch keeping workers on the sidelines. They explore why the Fed's rate-cutting path gets murkier when the labor market looks strong on the surface but fragile underneath. A concrete look at a hidden stress point in the economy, anchored to the latest numbers from June 2026. #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #JOLTS #JobsReport #MayJobs2026 #UnemploymentRate #StructuralMismatch #EconomicIndicators #HiringSlowdown #FedRateCuts #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsShow #MacroMemo #JoblessClaims #WageGrowth Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo