The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees

Tobias Carlisle joins Excess Returns to discuss why today’s market may be setting up a major opportunity in value stocks, small caps and micro caps. We cover stretched market valuations, AI capex, SpaceX and other massive IPOs, the risk of speculative growth assumptions, and how Tobias builds systematic deep value portfolios in ZIG and DEEP.Tobias Carlisle on Xhttps://x.com/GreenbackdAcquirers Fundshttps://acquirersfunds.com/Topics covered:Why elevated market valuations point to lower forward returns, not necessarily an immediate exit from stocksThe case for small value, micro-cap value and mid-cap value after a long large-cap growth cycleWhy equal-weight indexes and small caps may be signaling a market leadership shiftWhether AI capex will create lasting profits or mostly benefit consumersThe parallels and differences between AI, the dot-com boom, railroads and fiber optic buildoutsHow AI spending is being financed and why the stock market may be demanding more compute investmentWhat the SpaceX IPO, OpenAI and Anthropic could mean for market supply and investor psychologyWhy base rates are being challenged by the growth of major technology platformsHow disruption can create value traps and why traditional valuation metrics can struggle in disrupted industriesThe energy demand implications of AI data centers and why nuclear and natural gas could matterHow Tobias combines valuation, quality, financial statements and portfolio construction in ZIG and DEEPWhy quarterly rebalancing may be a practical balance between timing luck, momentum and trading costsTimestamps:00:00 Why AI value may accrue to consumers04:00 What extreme market valuations say about future returns08:22 Small caps, equal weight and the Mag Seven reversal14:15 AI capex and lessons from past technology booms19:47 Who gets the profits from AI?23:00 Cash flow, debt and the AI spending race28:06 SpaceX, giant IPOs and market supply31:00 OpenAI, Anthropic and Mauboussin’s base rates35:17 Is buying the S&P 500 more speculative than investors realize?36:57 Value investing during disruptive technology cycles41:07 War, energy prices and the broadening trade45:32 Semiconductor valuations and aggressive growth assumptions47:30 How Tobias builds the ZIG and DEEP portfolios54:17 ETF rebalancing, timing luck and systematic value investing