The 2020 Presidential Election – A Little over Two Months before Election Day

Host William Hudson is joined by political scientists Adam Myers and Matt Guardino to analyze the shape of the presidential race as of August 18th.  Our conversation took place after the first day of the Democrats virtual convention.  We reflect for a few minutes on how we think the Democrats did in making their case for electing Joe Biden on this first day.  We then discuss Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s lead in the current polls and what that suggests about the likely election outcome.  We identify several factors that might produce a  Trump victory despite Biden’s current lead, including the Electoral College - how Trump might benefit from shifts in some of the key battleground states he won in 2016 and the impact of what might be a chaotic election process in the midst of the Covid pandemic.  We dissect Biden’s pick of Kamala Harris as his running mate and what impact that may have on the election.  Finally, we describe what appears to be the campaign strategies of the Biden and Trump camps and how effective they are likely to be.