EPISODE · Jan 10, 2025 · 24 MIN
The 2024 Polls Were...Really Accurate
from Poll Hub · host Lee Miringoff, Jay DeDapper, Mary Griffith, Barbara Carvalho
Recently, The New York Times ran a feature "How Top Pollsters Grade 2024’s Polls" that included Lee's analysis (and a sweet cartoon drawing of the legend himself!) and reached the conclusion, the polls were pretty damn accurate in 2024 despite the fact that most had Kamala Harris winning by a narrow margin. We discuss whether that's just wishful thinking or whether expectations have far outstripped what polls can do in our deeply 50-50 political world.We follow with a segment discussing our latest poll results on the state of American democracy. We've been asking Americans about this for a few years and, this time Americans are the most hopeful they've been since the January 6th insurrection. And yet, a large majority are still worried.Finally, should any American make more money than the president? If that question seems odd, perhaps that's because it's from 1939!
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What this episode covers
Now that we've had a couple of months to look at our (and others') polling data AND the actual election results, we have a good handle on how well the polls did in 2024. Then, our new poll shows Americans are as optimistic about the state of our democracy as they've been since 2021, BUT...a big majority are still worried. And our first fun fact of 2025 is about presidential pay...and somehow, Babe Ruth?!?
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The 2024 Polls Were...Really Accurate
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