The 2024 Wrap-Up and Spicy Predictions with Cheryl & Maxine

Episode Summary:In this year-end wrap-up, Cheryl and Maxine reflect on 2024’s venture landscape, from shifting investor sentiment to the lingering effects of the zero-interest era. They dig into the rise in early-stage investments, the resurgence of AI enthusiasm, and the cautious optimism permeating the ecosystem. With equal doses of hindsight and foresight, they offer spicy predictions for 2025: from a potential surge in IPOs to the possibility of a one-person billion-dollar startup. If you’re looking for unfiltered commentary on liquidity, the fate of AI hype, and what lies ahead for the Australian and global tech markets, this episode covers it all—plus a healthy side of debate and laughter.Timestamps00:00 Introduction & Annual Wrap-Up Setup00:21 Reflecting on Last Year's Predictions & Risk Appetite Shift01:50 Investor Sentiment & Early-Stage Deal Growth03:06 ChatGPT Adoption & AI’s Embedded Productivity Gains05:00 Liquidity’s Return: M&A, Secondaries & Early Exits07:30 Increased Angel Activity & “Learning Checks” Trend09:20 Discussing Worst Investor Terms & Founder-Friendly Boundaries10:47 The State of IPO Markets, Political Shifts & Macro Effects12:40 AI Acceleration, Productivity Tools & Future Potential14:10 Spicy 2025 Predictions: IPOs, One-Person Billion-Dollar Startups & Bubble Cycles17:00 Final Takeaways, Lessons Learned & Maintaining OptimismKey Takeaways:Gradual Investor Confidence Rebuild: Despite a tough few years, investor sentiment improved slightly in 2024, with more early-stage deals and smaller check sizes indicating a return of risk appetite.More Angels, More Checks: The Australian ecosystem saw a surge in angels writing “learning checks,” reflecting a more portfolio-minded approach among first-time investors.AI’s Permanent Footing: AI is here to stay, with everyday products increasingly integrating it for productivity gains. While some skeptics remain, the hosts firmly believe AI isn’t a passing fad.M&A and IPO Prospects: Early-stage M&A activity is up and liquidity events may increase if certain geopolitical and economic shifts occur. While 2024 saw incremental gains, 2025 may bring either a return to “bubble” conditions or a more measured growth environment.Spicy Predictions for 2025: From a potential billion-dollar one-person startup to a high-profile AI company collapse, the hosts don’t hold back on bold forecasts.Resources MentionedPrograms like the Climate Salad Global Growth Program and BuildClub (discussed as ecosystem examples)Notable Quotes“We are seeing a lot more risk appetite at the earlier stages, which tells me there are more early stage companies getting funded.” – Cheryl“I think we will see a high profile AI company collapse next year.” – Cheryl on her bold 2025 prediction“My spicy take: You cannot build a generational company in a year.” – Maxine“AI is here to stay—it's not a fad, it’s going to be integrated into everything.” – CherylSponsors:First Cheque is supported by our wonderful sponsors:Deel: Founders scale faster on Deel. Set up payroll for any country in minutes, hire anyone anywhere, and get visas handled fast, so you stay focused on scaling. Deel takes care of onboarding, HR, IT, EOR, benefits, and compliance, so your team can grow without borders.It’s why more than 40,000 fast-growing companies trust Deel to move fast.Visit https://www.deel.com/dayone___Pear Tree: Pear Tree helps Australian and New Zealand founders build high-performing offshore teams without the agency middleman.As local hiring becomes more expensive and harder to fill, many operators are turning to offshore talent across engineering, development, marketing, accounting and operations at a fraction of local salary costs.The offshore horror stories you hear usually aren’t a talent problem. They’re the result of outsourcing agencies that overcharge clients while underpaying staff. Pear Tree takes a different approach through a direct, transparent model where your team is paid fairly, fully compliant, and focused entirely on your business.As part of the Day One community, you’ll receive a free team audit to identify where offshore talent could move the needle in your business, plus 20% off your first hire. Learn more at http://dayone.fm/peartree First Cheque is part of Day One.Day One helps founders and startup operators make better business decisions more often. To learn more, join our newsletter to be notified of new First Cheque episodes and upcoming shows. Mentioned in this episode:Deel x PX_Script 1This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrpSpotify Ad Analytics - https://www.spotify.com/us/legal/ad-analytics-privacy-policy/