The $800 Canola Mistake Farmers Keep Making

Canola hit $800, then pulled back toward $730. So why do farmers feel better now? In this episode of What the Futures Podcast, Ryan Denis breaks down the emotional side of crop marketing, why farmers often feel worse during a rally than after a pullback, and how margin calls, hedges, canola puts, old crop wheat, acreage reports, diesel, fertilizer and summer weather risk all fit into the end-of-June marketing plan. Ryan also talks through old crop wheat sales, softening oat, barley and pea bids, new crop review, harvest delivery planning, canola acreage risk, and why farmers need to park emotion before the next market move. What the Futures Podcast:https://www.whatthefuturespodcast.ca/ Ryan Denis:https://www.ryandenis.ca/ Strategy Room:https://www.ryandenis.ca/strategy-room Crop Marketing Made Cool Conference 2026:https://www.ryandenis.ca/2026-conference Ag in Motion:https://aginmotion.ca/ UPL WAVE Biostimulant:https://www.uplcorp.com/ca/product-details/wave-biostimulant UPL ROXAR Fungicide:https://www.upl-ltd.com/ca/product-details/roxar BrettYoung:https://brettyoung.ca/ BrettYoung Knowledge Hub:https://brettyoung.ca/agricultural-seed-crop-inputs-canada-portal/knowledge-hub/ Cows in Control:https://cowsincontrol.com/ FBN:https://www.fbn.com/ Trigger Grain:https://triggergrain.ca/ RBC / Tyler Durst:https://wmc.rbcwealthmanagement.com/the-simpson/caputo-group/ Email Ryan:[email protected] Chapters (00:00:00) - Canola at $730 vs $800: Why Farmers Feel Better(00:00:35) - UPL Studio, WAVE, ROXAR and Spraying Update(00:02:40) - Cattle Meeting Lesson: The Other AI(00:06:08) - BrettYoung Forage Blends and Knowledge Hub(00:07:18) - Father’s Day Reflection and Ryan’s Birthday Week(00:10:12) - Upcoming Episodes and July 6 Strategy Room(00:11:17) - New Crop Canola Breaks Support Near $730(00:12:18) - The $800 Canola Emotion Trap(00:14:20) - Margin Calls, Hedges and Pressure on the Farm(00:16:30) - The Double Whammy: Exiting Risk and Missing the High(00:19:40) - Old Crop Wheat, Oats, Barley and Peas: Clean the Bins(00:22:17) - New Crop Review: Cash Flow, Delivery and Targets(00:24:09) - Check Your Market Bias Before Making Sales(00:28:09) - Acreage Reports and Canola Downside Risk(00:29:27) - Strait of Hormuz, Diesel, Fertilizer and Volatility(00:30:37) - Park Emotion and Follow the Crop Marketing Plan(00:31:38) - Closing and Cuppa Coffee Note