The AI Superforecasters Are Here - By Scott Alexander

In this post, Scott Alexander argues that AI superforecasters have arrived: not as a distant sci-fi milestone, but as systems already competing with elite human forecasters, making money in prediction markets, and producing cheap, fast probabilistic analysis on real-world questions. He explores what happens when forecasting becomes something anyone can query on demand, why this may reshape finance, policy, and prediction markets, and whether AI forecasting could become the “opinion layer” that lets future chatbots give useful, testable judgments without simply mirroring human bias.https://open.substack.com/pub/astralcodexten/p/the-ai-superforecasters-are-here?r=67y1h&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web Get full access to Askwho Casts AI at askwhocastsai.substack.com/subscribe