The AI Trade, the Fed and the Next Phase of the Bull Market | Warren Pies

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Excess Returns to break down the AI bull market, the macro risks investors should watch, and why the data still supports continued strength in semiconductors and equities. We discuss GPU demand, token usage, open source AI, Fed policy, housing weakness, oil, earnings growth, market valuations and the biggest risks to the current cycle.Warren Pies on Xhttps://x.com/WarrenPies3Fourteen Researchhttps://www.3fourteenresearch.com/Calibanhttps://www.3fourteenresearch.com/calibanMain topics coveredWhich bearish AI arguments actually matter for investorsWhy regulatory risk may be the biggest long-term AI concernHow data center spending is crowding out housing investmentWhy the Fed may struggle to cool AI-driven investment without hurting the labor marketWhat GPU availability says about real-time AI compute demandWhy open source AI is not yet replacing frontier modelsHow token pricing and OpenRouter data help measure AI usageWhy semiconductor stocks may still be in the middle of a major cycleHow semis are being valued differently than traditional cyclicalsWhy Fed policy, earnings growth and market multiples are key to the second half of 2026What oil positioning and refined product inventories say about macro riskWhy 3Fourteen remains constructive on equities despite rising overheating riskTimestamps00:00 Intro01:04 Which bearish AI arguments have teeth?04:00 Why AI regulation is the biggest long-term risk07:03 Technology spending versus housing investment11:03 How AI CapEx is showing up in inflation data13:04 Why the labor market is more fragile than headline jobs data suggests16:24 Why GPU availability is a cleaner signal than CapEx announcements21:00 What token pricing and OpenRouter data reveal about AI demand27:36 How 3Fourteen benchmarks frontier models against open source AI30:00 Why the semiconductor selloff looked like a buyable dip34:02 Are semiconductors still cyclical businesses?38:08 Why Fed tightening could be the thing that ends the bull market42:15 What the oil shock means now45:47 Refined product inventories, crack spreads and energy stocks47:18 Are earnings estimates becoming too optimistic?50:49 Why the debasement regime still supports equities54:05 Where to find Warren Pies and 3Fourteen Research