The Airbnb market collapsed, here's what to do instead

Host Bailey Kramer explains why short-term rentals have become much harder than they were 2–4 years ago and outlines five main causes: (1) supply has exploded since the COVID-era boom while travel demand has normalized, creating intense competition and a race to the bottom on price; (2) guests are booking last minute because they see abundant availability, which reduces revenue predictability and forces hosts to discount; (3) Airbnb’s fee shift to a 15.5% host fee (0% guest fee) makes listings feel more expensive to guests, contributing to more 4-star reviews and review-related risk; (4) increasing regulation and uncertainty as cities restrict or tax short-term rentals; and (5) rising guest expectations for expensive amenities (hot tubs, murals, game rooms, pickleball courts, etc.) that are costly to maintain and can drive refunds and lower reviews. Kramer recommends pivoting to midterm rentals (30+ night stays), which target different tenants such as traveling nurses, construction crews, corporate relocations, displaced families, and people between home purchases who prioritize safe, furnished housing with fast Wi‑Fi and a stocked kitchen over luxury amenities. He argues there is less competition for longer stays (e.g., 60-night searches show fewer listings), fewer turnovers, lower operational stress, and more predictable income. He shares that he shifted from short-term rentals to running 10 midterm rental units and gives an example of a property averaging $2,800/month that could gross around $3,000 as a short-term rental but with far more turnovers and operational burden. He notes that while peak revenue may be slightly lower, stability and reduced expenses can improve profitability, and that short-term rentals still work mainly for ultra-luxury or ultra-unique properties. He suggests struggling hosts try setting a 30-night minimum stay and invites viewers to learn more via his podcast, YouTube channel, or Instagram.00:00 Why Airbnb Feels Impossible Right Now (Intro + What You’ll Do Instead)01:10 Reason #1: Supply Explosion + Demand Normalized (Race to the Bottom)02:20 Reason #2: Last-Minute Bookings Kill Predictability03:32 Reason #3: Airbnb Fee Shift = Higher Prices, Lower Reviews04:39 Reason #4: Regulation Risk and City Crackdowns05:21 Reason #5: Sky-High Guest Expectations & Amenity Burnout06:16 The Pivot: Why Midterm Rentals Win (30–60+ Night Stays)06:56 Who Midterm Rentals Serve + How to Spot the Opportunity08:03 Real Portfolio Example: More Stability, Fewer Turnovers, Strong Margins09:30 Wrap-Up: Airbnb Isn’t Dead—Pivot to 30+ Nights + Next Steps