The American Consumer & the Market’s Rusty Door

There is a keen focus on the American Consumer these days. With inflation at 4-decade highs and the Federal Reserve spiking interest rates, the US Economy is slowing to stall speed. Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of US GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Needless to say, the American Consumer is the economic engine. So far, they're hanging in there. Americans seem to have started spending for the Holidays. Amazon held its first-ever October Prime Day and many retailers have already initiated Black Friday sales. October retail sales were reported this week. The headline number came in hotter than expected and September was revised upward. Retail sales in October rose 1.3% month-over-month. That beat the estimate of 1.0%. It was the largest monthly increase since February and was up a whopping 8.3% from a year ago.These numbers sound fantastic on the face of it. But it depends on how you look at it. Headlines can be quite misleading. Remember, inflation has been running near 8% this year. Higher prices have been the biggest driver of the spending increases. Units sold in October was basically flat. We Americans have been spending more and getting less. Consumers are stretched. That's been a big theme in 2022...