The Australian Venture Playbook for 2026

Episode SummaryAs 2026 kicks off, Cheryl and Maxine open the year with their annual First Cheque wrap, a grounded, opinionated take on what actually shifted in Australian tech and venture, and what that means for the year ahead.They break down why 2025 marked a genuine inflection point for the ecosystem, from Canva’s secondary and a surge in M&A to fresh signals that long-awaited liquidity is finally starting to flow. Despite minimal government support, Australia quietly proved itself as one of the most capital-efficient venture markets globally, producing unicorns at roughly twice the rate of the US per dollar invested.The conversation also tackles the harder truths investors and founders need to reckon with in 2026: early-stage funding compressing while late stage heats up, corporate venture capital retreating, and the gender funding gap sliding backwards. Looking forward, Cheryl and Maxine share their predictions for the year ahead, where funding volumes may land, why seed remains the toughest stage, how AI valuations could trigger a market correction, and why energy and infrastructure may emerge as the next premium asset class.Time Stamps00:00 – Intro: End of year energy: why 2025 felt different to 202403:55 – Election fallout and the government’s “nothingburger” for startups05:24 – Canva’s secondary and the first real signs of liquidity returning09:49 – Aussie tech M&A heats up: Canva, Linktree, Jolt, and more12:09 – The stat that changed the narrative: Australia’s unicorn efficiency16:14 – The weirdest trend of the year: early stage down, late stage up18:27 – Tech jobs, data centers, and the infrastructure bet Australia is making22:52 – Why deep tech and climate are pulling venture dollars again28:21 – The gender funding gap got worse (and why)33:09 – Corporate VC is pulling out: what happened to strategic capital37:02 – 2026 predictions: funding totals, seed pain, and where capital flows next44:00 – AI bubble risk: tourism, ROI pressure, and the domino effect47:42 – Hot take: electricity is the next valuation premium49:00 – Will diversity bounce back in 2026? (vibes, but also logic)First Cheque is part of Day One.Day One helps founders and startup operators make better business decisions more often. To learn more, join our newsletter to be notified of new First Cheque episodes and upcoming shows.Mentioned in this episode:Deel x PX_Script 1This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrpSpotify Ad Analytics - https://www.spotify.com/us/legal/ad-analytics-privacy-policy/