The Brett Keane Show | Will Donald Trump Screw Tariffs, Medicaid, and Social Security

Tariffs: Doubling Down or Dialing Back?Trump has long championed tariffs as a tool to protect American jobs and punish trading partners he deems unfair. During his first term, he imposed steep tariffs on steel and aluminum (25% and 10%, respectively) and launched a trade war with China, slapping duties on over $350 billion in goods. His 2024 campaign doubled down, with proposals for a 10-20% universal tariff on all imports and a 60% levy on Chinese goods.Proponents argue this could boost domestic manufacturing. Critics, however, warn of higher consumer prices and retaliation from allies like the EU and Canada, who responded to past tariffs with their own. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimated that Trump’s first-term tariffs cost American consumers $46 billion annually. In 2025, with inflation still a voter concern, will Trump push ahead regardless? Congressional Republicans, many of whom softened their free-trade stance to align with him, might back him—but only if the economic fallout doesn’t tank their midterm prospects in 2026.The wildcard is global supply chains. Post-pandemic disruptions and tensions with China could embolden Trump to go big, risking a tariff escalation that "screws" both American wallets and international relations. Or, facing pushback from businesses and a potentially divided GOP, he might scale back to symbolic wins.Medicaid: Cuts or Continuity?Medicaid, the health insurance program for low-income Americans, has been a GOP target for years. Trump’s first term saw efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which expanded Medicaid in dozens of states. While the full repeal failed, his administration approved work requirements in some states (later struck down by courts) and pushed block grants to cap federal spending.In 2024, Trump’s campaign was light on specifics about Medicaid, focusing instead on broad promises to "fix healthcare." But his allies—like House Speaker Mike Johnson—have floated entitlement reforms to offset tax cuts or rising deficits. With Republicans potentially controlling Congress in 2025, a push to shrink Medicaid could gain traction. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that 71 million people rely on the program as of 2023; any cuts would spark fierce backlash from Democrats and red-state governors who’ve embraced expansion.Trump’s base, however, includes working-class voters who benefit from Medicaid. Screwing them over risks political blowback. He might opt for a middle ground—tweaking eligibility or funding without dismantling the program outright. Still, fiscal hawks in his party could force his hand, especially if economic growth stalls.Social Security: Sacred Cow or Sacrificial Lamb?Social Security is the third rail of American politics—touch it, and you’re toast. Trump knows this. In 2016 and 2020, he vowed to protect it, distancing himself from GOP plans to raise the retirement age or trim benefits. His 2024 campaign echoed that pledge, with Trump claiming, “I’ll never let them take away your Social Security.”Yet, reality bites. The Social Security Trust Fund is projected to run dry by 2035, per the latest trustees’ report, forcing either benefit cuts or new revenue. Trump’s first term offered a hint of his instincts: a 2020 payroll tax deferral (later dropped) that would’ve siphoned funds from the program. If deficits balloon under his tax cuts or tariff-driven slowdown, pressure to tweak Social Security could mount.Will he screw it? Unlikely in a frontal assault—voters over 65 are too crucial to his coalition. But indirect moves, like resisting tax hikes to shore up the fund, could erode its long-term stability. Democrats would pounce, framing any change as betrayal. Trump’s most likely play: kick the can down the road, leaving the mess for 2033.