The Bubble You Can’t Exit | Dan Rasmussen on the Private Equity Trap

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined again by Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Advisors for a wide-ranging conversation that challenges some of the most popular narratives in markets today. From private equity and private credit risks to AI-driven capital cycles and overlooked opportunities in biotech and international equities, Dan offers a deeply research-driven perspective on where investors may be misallocating capital and where future returns could emerge. Alongside Justin and special guest co-host Kai Wu, the discussion connects valuation, incentives, and innovation in a market environment shaped by concentration, leverage, and technological change.Main topics covered• Why private equity performance continues to disappoint and where the biggest structural risks are emerging• The growing stress in private credit and what rising bankruptcies signal for lower middle-market deals• Why democratizing private equity through 401ks, interval funds, and ETFs may create more problems than solutions• How AI CapEx is changing the economics of Big Tech and why asset-light models may be getting worse, not better• The case for diversifying away from U.S. concentration toward international markets and international small value• Why bubbles are often necessary for innovation and how to think about AI through that historical lens• How investors may be underestimating valuation and growth bankruptcy risk in the Mag 7• Why biotech is one of the hardest sectors to model and how Verdad rebuilt its framework from scratch• How intangible value, clinical trial data, specialist ownership, and peer momentum can improve biotech investing• What capital starvation, M&A dynamics, and global competition mean for biotech’s future returnsTimestamps00:00 Introduction and market narratives02:20 Revisiting private equity risks and performance06:58 Private credit stress and bankruptcy signals10:58 Private equity in 401ks and interval fund risks14:52 Private assets in ETFs and liquidity concerns15:45 Why bubbles drive innovation and capital formation20:13 AI CapEx, Mag 7 concentration, and valuation risk25:24 International diversification and market leadership29:41 Why Verdad turned to biotech research37:13 Rebuilding biotech valuation and quality metrics44:26 Clinical trial data and peer momentum insights49:17 Portfolio construction and long-short biotech strategies51:00 Capital starvation, AI, and biotech’s setup53:58 Research culture, humility, and evolving quant models