The Cartel Math Isn't Mathing

Jacob Shapiro sits down with Victor Hernandez, a Mexican national security analyst, to stress-test his own optimism about Mexico. Hernandez argues the army now runs eight ministries' budgets, can't out-spy the cartels, and may face limited US drone strikes Mexico has no way to resist. El Mencho's death looks more like an ambush than a victory. Nearshoring pencils out on a spreadsheet - until corruption and parallel taxation eat the margin. A bracing case for what happens if Jacob's wrong. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro and Framing (01:29) - Meet Victor Hernandez (02:44) - Victor Background and Career (05:00) - Army Trust and Corruption (07:38) - Blowback and Patriotism (10:25) - Morena and Military Power (15:29) - Future of Militarization (17:24) - Army vs Cartels Capabilities (22:26) - Will the US Intervene (26:26) - Drone Strikes Fallout (29:32) - Cuba Sequencing and Allies (33:04) - Trade Dependence and Diversification (39:45) - El Mencho and Cartel Fragmentation (44:14) - Investing and Nearshoring Risks (51:05) - What If Victor Is Wrong (54:24) - Closing and Outro -- Referenced in the Show: Victor Hernandez - https://www.linkedin.com/in/v%C3%ADctor-hern%C3%A1ndez-979002b0? ILEES - https://www.ilees.mx/ -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. --