The Chart of Truth Is Turning | Rupert Mitchell on the Regime Change Investors Are Missing

In this episode of Excess Returns, Rupert Mitchell returns to break down a rapidly shifting global macro landscape and explain how he is positioning across regions, assets, and market regimes. The conversation spans emerging markets, commodities, China, Latin America, US market leadership, and the risks building beneath familiar narratives. Rupert walks through the charts, frameworks, and portfolio construction decisions that underpin his current outlook, with a focus on duration, cash flows, and real assets in a changing cycle.Topics covered include:Why US equity leadership is showing signs of fatigue after a decade-plus runThe case for emerging markets as a multi-year relative tradeLatin America as a commodity-driven opportunity rather than a political betBrazil, Mexico, and Peru through the lens of fiscal policy and real assetsWhy India stands out as expensive within emerging marketsChina’s equity market inflection and the role of domestic savings and fiscal supportThe difference between onshore A-shares and offshore Chinese equitiesWhy Rupert prefers lower-beta, dividend-oriented exposure in ChinaHow AI is being deployed differently in China versus the USThe risks facing enterprise software and long-duration growth assetsPortfolio construction, benchmarking, and managing drawdowns across cyclesHow Rupert thinks about hedging, trend following, and capital preservationTimestamps:00:00 Macro market backdrop and early warning signals01:00 Venezuela, oil, and why context matters more than headlines04:40 The chart of truth and US versus international equities07:00 Emerging markets relative performance and historical parallels10:00 Duration risk, valuation, and the shift toward real assets14:30 Mag 7 leadership, software weakness, and AI disruption18:00 India valuations and the role of flows and derivatives20:40 Latin America beyond politics: commodities and fiscal drivers26:00 Brazil, Mexico, and country-level positioning29:50 Benchmarking and why Latin America is a major overweight32:10 China’s equity inflection and the ABC framework36:00 Fiscal policy, buybacks, and domestic savings in China41:00 Tencent versus Alibaba and managing drawdowns44:30 AI capex discipline in China versus the US46:00 Stock selection in China and second-derivative opportunities51:00 Portfolio construction, benchmarks, and risk management58:00 Blind Squirrel Macro, live shows, and ongoing research