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EPISODE · May 13, 2022 · 23 MIN

The Cyclical Outlook for the Euro Area: Difficult Business

from The Week That Was in Europe · host Klaus Adam & Dirk Schumacher

We discuss the main indicators providing information about the short-term Euro Area economic outlook. We also discss why forecasting is generally difficult and why standard forecasting tools do not perform well during the current period and what can be done about it. We mention two academic papers: "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vectorautoregressions", by Cimadomo, Giannone, Lenza, Monti & Sokol, ECB Working Paper No. 2453, 2020 "How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020", by Lenza & Primiceri, ECB Working Paper No. 2461, 2020

What this episode covers

We discuss the main indicators providing information about the short-term Euro Area economic outlook. We also discss why forecasting is generally difficult and why standard forecasting tools do not perform well during the current period and what can be done about it. We mention two academic papers: "Nowcasting with Large Bayesian Vectorautoregressions", by Cimadomo, Giannone, Lenza, Monti & Sokol, ECB Working Paper No. 2453, 2020 "How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020", by Lenza & Primiceri, ECB Working Paper No. 2461, 2020

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The Cyclical Outlook for the Euro Area: Difficult Business

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This episode is 23 minutes long.

When was this The Week That Was in Europe episode published?

This episode was published on May 13, 2022.

What is this episode about?

We discuss the main indicators providing information about the short-term Euro Area economic outlook. We also discss why forecasting is generally difficult and why standard forecasting tools do not perform well during the current period and what can...

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