The Dry Side of the Energy Transition

Everyone is watching oil markets and the Strait of Hormuz. But the quieter, and arguably bigger, story is happening in dry bulk.In this episode, Senior Market Analyst Maria Bertzeletou and Vice President of Data Partnerships Hugo Rousse follow bauxite: the rock that becomes aluminium, and one of the most important commodities at the heart of the energy transition.From a small village in southern France to the world's third-largest dry bulk cargo by volume, bauxite has quietly multiplied its share of global shipping from 2% in 2015 to nearly 10% today, driven by electric vehicles, solar panels, power grids, and the simple fact that it takes four tonnes of bauxite to produce one tonne of aluminium.But the story right now is full of mixed signals. Guinea controls 81% of seaborne bauxite exports and is moving to cap them. China absorbs almost all of it. And the swing between "the quota bites" and "bauxite keeps flowing" represents roughly 46 Capesizes of demand, the difference between 1% and 4.6% growth for the Capesize market in 2026.If you want one cargo that tells you whether the electric age is real, watch bauxite.