The effects of fiscal policy management, candidacy of previous mayors, and illiteracy on mayoral reelection in Brazil

Lautenschlage, J., Veiga, L. G., & Veiga, F. J. (2024). The effects of fiscal policy management, candidacy of previous mayors, and illiteracy on mayoral reelection in Brazil. Economics & Politics, 36, 1345–1381. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12290 ### Summary in English (150 words) This article examines factors influencing the re-election prospects of Brazilian mayors, focusing on local expenditure management, the candidacy of term-limited former mayors, and literacy rates. Using data from 5,114 municipalities across four elections (2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020), the study finds that opportunistic spending and higher average investments increase re-election chances. The candidacy of a term-limited former mayor decreases the current mayor's re-election likelihood, highlighting the significance of prior experience held by opposition candidates. Voter memory extends to previous mayors' investment spending, negatively affecting the incumbent's prospects. Literacy rates shape voter attitudes: less-educated voters reward increased current expenditures, while more-educated populations favor investment spending. These findings provide insights into political budget cycles, incumbent advantages, and the role of education in political accountability. The study focuses on Brazilian municipal elections, and future research could explore service quality, candidate characteristics, and media influence on voter attitudes toward fiscal policy management.