The End of Nuclear Assurances

The Iran war isn’t just another conflict—it’s the death knell for nuclear assurances. Ukraine gave up its arsenal for broken promises (Budapest Memorandum). Iran complied with the JCPOA until the U.S. tore it up. Diplomacy yielded a breakthrough on Feb 27, 2026—then strikes hit Feb 28. Now France expands its nukes for the first time in decades, THAAD defenses are stripped from South Korea, and allies worldwide rethink deterrence. Broken trust doesn’t prevent proliferation; it accelerates it. What has been achieved when the world re-arms faster than ever? Full analysis in the latest Cerf Report podcast. Get full access to The Cerf Report at thecerfreport.substack.com/subscribe