The Expiration of the START treaty?

Briefing Document: The Post-New START Nuclear Landscape and Global Power ShiftsExecutive SummaryThe expiration of the "New START" treaty marks a critical juncture in global security, signaling the end of an era defined by nuclear transparency and the beginning of a renewed, less predictable arms race. While the immediate risk of nuclear conflict remains assessed as limited, the structural guardrails that governed the arsenals of the United States and Russia have dissolved. This shift is characterized by massive financial investments in modernization—notably a €900 billion commitment by the U.S. over the next decade—and the aggressive emergence of China as a major nuclear protagonist.The geopolitical landscape is transitioning from a framework of trust-based arms control to a "law of the jungle" logic, where nuclear capabilities serve as "umbrellas" for imperialist expansion and conventional military actions. For Europe, this presents a dual crisis: a qualitative technological gap in hypersonic weaponry and a lack of internal cohesion and "courage" to translate its significant economic wealth into unified strategic strength.