The Fed Is Fracturing

Today’s episode breaks down one of the most contentious FOMC meetings in nearly a decade. A deeply divided Fed delivered a rate cut that may also mark the end of the cutting cycle, with multiple dissents on both the dovish and hawkish sides and an unusually fractured dot plot. The conversation explores what the dissents reveal about competing inflation and labor-market risks, why Powell says the Fed is effectively flying blind without fresh BLS data, and how alternative data is shaping the debate. It also examines the quiet but significant shift in balance-sheet policy, as the Fed ends QT and begins reserve management purchases that many see as “QE that isn’t QE,” and what this hawkish cut, baby QE, and a broken consensus mean for markets heading into an increasingly uncertain 2026 outlook.