The Fed Might Erase Forward Guidance. BlackRock Says Bitcoin Pays. — Jun 15, 2026 (PM)

The third domino might not exist by Wednesday. That is the thing I cannot stop thinking about tonight. I mapped the cascade across two episodes. Hormuz to oil to inflation to the dot plot to bitcoin. Two dominoes fell exactly as I described. But the third one, the dot plot, might get removed from the table before it has a chance to fall. Warsh has been saying for years that forward guidance is a straitjacket. He might cut the straitjacket off at his first meeting. And if he does, the cascade I mapped doesn't resolve. It just ends. The channel between easing inflation and rate expectations goes dark. And on the same morning, BlackRock launches a product that says bitcoin generates income. Not appreciation. Not a hedge. Income. Fifteen to twenty-five percent annual yield. Built at Fear twenty-three. The world's largest asset manager looked at the same price that has the fear index reading Extreme Fear and decided it pays dividends. Two things landing on the same Tuesday. One removes the map. The other builds a house on the territory the map was trying to describe. That is the tension I want to sit with tonight.