The Fed New Chairman and the Breakeven Signal

Lucas and Luna unpack Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chairman on June 18, 2026, and what his approach signals for monetary policy. They zero in on the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which has dropped to 2.25 percent, and what that says about the market's view of inflation expectations under new leadership. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and CPI at 4.2 percent, the hosts discuss whether Warsh will prioritize credibility or flexibility. Specific data points include the 2.25 percent breakeven, the 3.63 percent effective fed funds rate, and the latest JOLTS job openings figure of 7.618 million. The episode explores the tension between the bond market's declining inflation expectations and the Fed's cautious stance, and what that means for rate cuts later this year. #KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #BreakevenInflation #MonetaryPolicy #FedMeeting #InflationExpectations #BondMarket #10YearTreasury #FedFundsRate #JOLTS #JobOpenings #CPI #Economics #TheMacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #CentralBank Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo