The FIRE Number Nobody Calculates

Episode 11 of The FIRE Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna explore the stealth variable that can derail early retirement: sequence-of-spending risk. While most FIRE planners obsess over withdrawal rates and market returns, they ignore the timing of big lumpy expenses like a new roof, a car replacement, or medical costs in the first decade of retirement. Using real data from a 2025 study by the Retirement Research Center, they show how a single $30,000 expense in year 2 of retirement can cut portfolio survival probability from 95% to 78%. They discuss strategies like building a spending buffer, using a home equity line of credit, and staggering major purchases. This episode is essential for anyone who thinks a 4% withdrawal rate is all you need to plan for. Hosts Lucas and Luna bring the conversation to life with specific examples and a practical framework for stress-testing your FIRE plan against lumpy spending. #FIRE #EarlyRetirement #SequenceOfReturnsRisk #LumpyExpenses #RetirementPlanning #WithdrawalRate #SpendingRisk #PortfolioSurvival #FIREPitfalls #RetirementResearchCenter #SORR #PersonalFinance #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FIREPodcast #RetirementIncome #Budgeting Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo