The Five Follies Investors Can’t Ignore | Protect the Pile Episode 23

On this episode of Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, Brooks Cutright and David Salem reunite for a wide-ranging market roundtable built around David’s “five follies” framework. With U.S. markets near all-time highs and the domestic setup still broadly bullish, the group debates the risks investors may be underestimating beneath the surface.Topics include the Iran conflict, energy positioning, resource nationalism, global supply-chain fragility, dollar weakness, Fed credibility and the limits of trying to control inflation with blunt tools. The conversation then shifts to AI, where the team digs into open versus closed models, hyperscaler CapEx, cloud economics, compute capacity, security risks and whether today’s spending boom will earn returns above its rising cost of capital. It’s a thoughtful look at markets, geopolitics and technology through a risk-first lens00:00 Welcome to Protect the Pile 01:17 Markets Near Highs & the Bullish U.S. Setup 02:58 David Salem’s “Five Follies” Framework 08:46 Energy Positioning & the Iran Conflict 11:06 Resource Wars, Hormuz & the Red Sea 17:24 Dollar Weakness, Allies & a Fragmenting World Order 24:26 The Fed, Inflation & the Limits of Control 29:07 Treasury Intervention, Japan & the Yen Carry Trade 36:59 Open vs. Closed AI Models 38:36 Hyperscaler CapEx, Cloud Economics & Compute Risk 51:55 Cybersecurity, Cost of Capital & AI FollyGet an investing edge on the enormous amount of money flowing into options every day, what they’re signaling, and the structural and behavioral trends driving markets higher or lower. The Market Situation Report™ includes access to a daily newsletter and weekly webcast featuring analysis of the Tier 1 Alpha team's proprietary models. CLICK HERE to check out our product page. Turn off that tired “Old Wall” TV and tune into The Macro Show, Hedgeye’s live daily broadcast featuring key market and economic insights, investing implications and interactive viewer Q&A. See for yourself why more and more investors in the U.S. and abroad have made this “must-see” market TV. We are live online every weekday morning at 9:00am ET. CLICK HERE to check out our product page.