The Fractals of Finance: Richard Brennan on Complex Adaptive Markets and the Real OODA Loop

Send us Fan MailMost investors lose because they are running a predictive model in a system that punishes prediction. Richard Brennan has spent decades building the alternative: align with price instead of predicting it.Richard Brennan is a trend follower, complex adaptive systems researcher, and author of The Fractals of Finance and Complex Adaptive Markets. He joins Mark McGrath and Brian "Ponch" Rivera on No Way Out for a conversation about why the market cannot be predicted, why it can be aligned with, and what that has to do with John Boyd, Karl Friston, and the free energy principle.Rich came to trend following through a science background that would not let the standard economic assumptions go unchallenged. The conversation covers the market as a reflexive complex adaptive system, why calm markets build hidden fragility, phase transitions and nonlinear change, fat tails and power laws, why volatility is not risk, and the geometry of wealth. Ponch and Mark connect Rich's aligning with price to Boyd's orientation and Friston's free energy principle, and the convergence becomes the conversation.Jerry Parker, who wrote the forewords to Rich's books, introduced him to the show. Find Rich at atstradingsolutions.com, the Traders Outpost.John R. Boyd's Conceptual Spiral was originally titled No Way Out. In his own words: “There is no way out unless we can eliminate the features just cited. Since we don’t know how to do this, we must continue the whirl of reorientation…” A promotional message for Ember Health.  Safe and effective IV ketamine care for individuals seeking relief from depression. Ember Health's evidence-based, partner-oriented, and patient-centered care model, boasting an 84% treatment success rate with 44% of patients reaching depression remission. It also mentions their extensive experience with over 40,000 infusions and treatment of more than 2,500 patients, including veterans, first responders, and individuals with anxiety and PTSD Stay connected with No Way Out and The Whirl Of ReOrientationX: @NoWayOutcast · @PonchAGLX · @NoWayOutMooseSubstack: The Whirl Of ReOrientation - www.thewhirl.substack.com