The Friction Regime: When Agentic Ambition Meets Global Supply Chokepoints

Today's episode examines the breakdown of the era of cheap capital as energy volatility and semiconductor demand drive a structural decoupling of central bank mandates from inflation trends. We analyze how the convergence of the AI super-cycle and maritime instability in the Strait of Hormuz is creating a new macro regime defined by persistent inflationary friction. Read this edition in full at https://www.pers-int.com/?digest=Macro%2C%20Geopolitics%2C%20Investing%20Evening%2FCompact_Digests%2Fdaily_digest_compact_2026-05-20_19-45-43.html&channel=Macro%2C%20Geopolitics%2C%20Investing%20Evening&latest=1 0:00 - Introduction 0:35 - Inflation, Interest Rates, and the New Macro Regime 10:27 - The AI Super-Cycle and Silicon Sovereignty 16:59 - Chokepoints and Conflict: The Global Energy Crisis 21:22 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "EM Fixed Income Assessing EM amid the global repricing of rates" (At Any Rate) - "Surging Borrowing Costs, EU-US Deal Advances, Nuns Get Financially Savvy" (Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe Edition) - "Target Tempers Expectations After Best Sales Gain in Years" (Bloomberg Intelligence) - "Home Depot's Sales Fall Short on Lackluster Housing Recovery" (Bloomberg Intelligence) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 20th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Paul Sankey & James Egelhof" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Concerns Over Long Term Yields and Oil Prices" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV May 19th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Single Best Idea with Tom Keene Joe Lavorgna & Becca Wasser" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Can the Asia Equity Rally Continue" (Exchanges) - "Trapped in the Strait of Hormuz" (The Journal.) - "280. Should the government set food prices" (The Rest Is Money) - "The Case for Staying Bullish on Equities" (Thoughts on the Market) - "Top of the Morning Election Watch - Unified government at a crossroads" (UBS On-Air: Market Moves) - "UBS On-Air Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Capping inflation'" (UBS On-Air: Market Moves) - "Luxury during wartime" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.