The Future of War Part III: Strategic Sabotage in an Era of Great-Power

Episode 144 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast continues the Future of War series with a sharp focus on strategic sabotage, indirect action, and deterrence below the threshold of armed conflict. The episode centers on “Special Delivery,” a near-future short story by August Cole set in 2037 amid intensifying U.S.–China competition. The story follows a small U.S. Special Operations team operating near Peru’s Port of Chancay, tasked with sabotaging Chinese-owned critical infrastructure as part of a broader effort to deter a potential blockade of Taiwan. Cole joins Rear Admiral Mark Schafer, Commander of SOCSOUTH, to explore how fiction can illuminate real strategic dilemmas and expose vulnerabilities embedded in global logistics, infrastructure, and access. The conversation examines how modern sabotage has evolved away from overt kinetic strikes toward a blend of cyber access, physical infiltration, logistics disruption, and information effects—designed less to destroy than to shape adversary decision-making. While emerging technologies like autonomous systems and AI-enabled tools play an important role, both guests emphasize that human skills—adaptability, cultural fluency, and teamwork—remain decisive. The episode closes by grappling with escalation risk, underscoring that strategic sabotage can provide policymakers with powerful options short of war, but only if applied with a deep understanding of adversary perceptions and regional dynamics.