The Futures Rundown 87: The Most Disappointing Crude Rally Ever?

On this episode of The Futures Rundown, host Mark Longo welcomes back Brett Friedman of Winhall Risk Analytics and OptionMetrics for a deep dive into one of the strangest stories in the futures markets: crude oil's surprisingly underwhelming response to a major geopolitical conflict. With dire supply warnings and plenty of doom-and-gloom predictions, many expected crude to explode higher. Instead, the rally has repeatedly struggled to live up to the hype. Brett compares the current environment with previous oil-market disruptions, including the historic volatility of 2020, and explains why this latest episode hasn't come close to matching those extremes. We also discuss: Why crude oil hasn't behaved the way many fundamental analysts expected The unusual volatility picture in WTI What's driving heating oil and gasoline Why gold and silver have fallen out of the market spotlight The return of the AI trade and the "most hated" equity rally What's happening in rates and the Fed-watching game Natural gas and the strange predictability of seasonal trading The steepening VIX futures curve Why palladium may have attracted the wrong crowd Whether traders are using the VIX the wrong way And much more